$STVN: are oral GLP-1s really a death blow? | Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel

The market's reaction to oral GLP-1 drugs threatening Stevanato Group (STVN) may be overblown, according to Aurelian Research’s Leo Trudel. While the stock has fallen 50% from its peak amid fears that oral formulations will cannibalize demand for injectables, Trudel argues the decline reflects an overreaction to a narrative, not a fundamental breakdown. He highlights that only 10% of the target population currently uses GLP-1s, meaning massive growth potential remains even if oral versions capture market share. Crucially, injectables still dominate for severe cases—diabetes, morbid obesity, and elderly patients with adherence challenges—where efficacy matters most. Meanwhile, Stevanato’s capacity expansion wasn’t solely for GLP-1s; half its business is in broader biologics, which are growing at 15–18% annually and remain capacity-constrained. Trudel also emphasizes the company’s powerful moat: FDA ‘spec-in’ lock-in, where pharma companies lock in delivery systems early in R&D, making switching prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. With strong margin expansion from higher-value products and a path to free cash flow positivity, Trudel sees long-term compounding potential. Yet he acknowledges the stock’s high multiple and volatility, calling it a 'fine business' but not a value play in his personal style—lacking distress or event-driven catalysts.