Pershing Square Challenge 2026 winners on DoorDash $DASH
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The winning team from Columbia Business School's Pershing Square Challenge 2026, known as Team DoorDash, presents a compelling case for DoorDash ($DASH) as a high-conviction long investment, arguing that the stock is deeply misunderstood by the market. They challenge the widespread narrative that U.S. food delivery growth has peaked, citing powerful demographic tailwinds—4 million new 18-year-olds entering the market annually—and evidence that younger users order more frequently and prefer DoorDash’s superior product quality over Uber Eats or Grubhub. Their research, based on nearly 100 primary interviews with former employees, merchants, investors, and competitors, reveals that DoorDash’s operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation are underappreciated. They project sustained growth in monthly active users (8% CAGR) and order frequency (3% CAGR), with new verticals and international markets—especially post-acquisition of Deliveroo—driving future profitability. Despite a current valuation of 25–30x EBITDA, they argue that adjusted free cash flow multiples of 18x are reasonable given the company’s long-term compounding potential and massive reinvestment in a unified tech stack. The team also defends DoorDash against AI disruption, asserting that the physical logistics layer—couriers, handoffs, real-time coordination—creates an insurmountable barrier to entry for AI agents.
DoorDash’s U.S. restaurant growth is in the middle innings, driven by 4 million new 18-year-olds entering the market annually, not just population growth.
Younger users (18–30) are more likely to use DoorDash than Uber Eats or Grubhub due to superior product quality, including faster delivery feeds and better merchant selection.
DoorDash’s average order frequency is projected to grow from 5 to 6 times per month, with 3% annual CAGR, supported by cohort data and third-party research.
The team’s 90+ primary research calls with former employees, merchants, and investors revealed that DoorDash’s operational excellence and capital discipline are key differentiators.
New verticals like grocery delivery are not a margin-destroying distraction—they’re being managed with strict payback periods and are expected to become profitable by 2030.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Introduction to the Pershing Square Challenge Winners
Andrew Walker introduces the winning team from Columbia Business School’s Pershing Square Challenge 2026, highlighting their exceptional research depth, including 90+ primary interviews and proprietary analysis of international acquisitions.
Why DoorDash? The Pitch Selection Process
The team explains their rigorous process for selecting DoorDash, emphasizing the need for a simple, widely understood business model with strong risk-reward asymmetry and ample room for primary research.
The U.S. Restaurant Growth Story: Demographics & Frequency
“We estimate that 40% of the NAU growth a year is coming from demographic trends.”
Primary Research: The Secret Weapon
“We did a bit under 100 calls. Did you say under? Did you just say under? Aaron, you got to round it up to 100, man.”
New Verticals & International: Profitability Timeline
The team explains how DoorDash’s new verticals and international markets are being managed with strict capital discipline, with profitability expected by 2030 despite current losses.
“just so many little things in the physical world that happen. They can't just be vibe coded away.”
“think it's about 40 of the NAU growth a year is coming from demographic trends.”
“We actually found out in Denmark, the international conglomerates need to disclose their Denmark subsidiary.”
Host
Guests
DoorDash
organization
Tony Xu
person
Aaron Samuels
person
Andrew Walker
person
Elliot Tompris
person
Pershing Square Challenge
other
ZK
person
Columbia Business School
organization
Deliveroo
organization
Wolt
organization
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