OTC 608 - Starters To Target Before Week Six
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The hosts of Pitcher List Fantasy Baseball dive deep into fringe starting pitchers to target before Week Six, emphasizing the importance of identifying 'Toby' pitchers—those with high upside but inconsistent command—before they become mainstream. Eric Simulski and Nick Pollock highlight several under-the-radar options, including Connor Prelip, whose elite command and five-pitch mix make him a safer bet than the more hyped Peyton Tolley. They also spotlight Tanner Bybee, whose improved curveball command and pitch mix suggest a breakout is possible, and Peter Lambert, whose recent success against the Orioles could be a launching pad for a streaming run. The episode underscores that high walk rates in baseball may persist due to mental adjustments and rule changes, making pitchers with low walk rates and high left-on-base rates—like Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty—prime candidates for short-term value. The hosts caution against overvaluing pitchers like Zach Wheeler and Max Meyer without seeing them pitch in major league games, while advocating for strategic risk-taking on pitchers like Foster Griffin and Bubba Chandler, who are currently undervalued due to poor outings. Ultimately, the key takeaway is that the best opportunities lie not in the obvious stars, but in pitchers who are quietly improving and whose performance is being overlooked.
Target pitchers like Connor Prelip and Peter Lambert who are undervalued due to recent inconsistency but show elite command and pitch mix.
Prioritize pitchers with low walk rates and high left-on-base rates (e.g., Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty) as they are likely to regress to more sustainable fantasy performance.
Avoid overvaluing pitchers like Zach Wheeler and Max Meyer until they prove themselves in major league games after rehab starts.
Foster Griffin and Bubba Chandler are 'Toby' pitchers—high-risk, high-reward streamers—best used in 12-team leagues for short-term value.
Pitchers like Tanner Bybee and Michael Walker show signs of breakout potential due to improved secondary pitch command and pitch mix.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Opening: Week Six Starters Preview
Hosts Eric Simulski and Nick Pollock introduce the episode, setting the stage for a deep dive into fringe starting pitchers to target before Week Six. They acknowledge the delay in release and emphasize actionable, high-impact analysis.
Baltimore Orioles & Brandon Young
The hosts discuss Brandon Young’s promotion to the rotation due to Dean Kremer’s IL stint. While acknowledging his decent first start, they remain cautious due to lack of ceiling and inconsistent secondary stuff.
Shane Bieber & the 'Toby' Pitcher Strategy
Eric defends Shane Bieber as a low-end 4.05 ERA pitcher despite poor performance, arguing that his cutter and changeup command can be fixed. The hosts emphasize targeting 'Toby' pitchers—high-risk, high-reward streamers—over waiting for a breakout.
Peyton Tolley: Hype vs. Reality
The hosts analyze Peyton Tolley’s strong start against the Yankees, praising his four-seamer and cutter but questioning his sinker usage against righties and inconsistent secondary command. They caution against overvaluing him immediately.
Tanner Bybee & Pitch Mix Breakouts
Tanner Bybee’s improved curveball command and increased changeup usage against righties are highlighted as signs of a potential breakout. The hosts note it may be a one-start blip, but the pitch mix is promising.
“I have him as a problem against the Orioles. I feel like this is one of those cases where I haven't pushed up a little bit more than normally would because it could be the launching pad of confidence.”
“I wouldn't be surprised if GioLito is up quickly. I'm not going to be excited about it until I see it.”
“is a, he's a Toby. He's an absolute Toby. That is someone who you just really like for the streams, but you don't feel like you have to hold on to White Sox.”
Hosts
Peyton Tolley
person
Connor Prelip
person
Eric Simulski
person
Nick Pollock
person
Peter Lambert
person
Tanner Bybee
person
Casey Mize
person
Foster Griffin
person
Bubba Chandler
person
Lucas Giolito
person
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