CFT 82 - SP Roster Decisions
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In this episode of Pitcher List Fantasy Baseball, Nick Pollock and guest Eno delve into critical roster decisions for 12-team fantasy leagues, focusing on under-the-radar pitchers with high upside. The central debate centers on whether to roster Griffin Jacks or Zebby Matthews, with Pollock favoring Jacks due to his improved command, evolving pitch mix, and ability to survive the transition to a starter’s role—despite recent efficiency concerns. They explore a provocative theory: that pitchers with below-average velocity (like 92-93 mph fastballs) may now be more effective because hitters are overly adjusted to the new 95+ mph norm, creating timing mismatches. This theory is supported by anomalies like Kamar Rocker’s 360 array and Bryce Elder’s success despite poor stuff. The conversation shifts to buy-low opportunities, with Pollock championing Gavin Williams (now a high-strike-rate pitcher in Cleveland) and Roki Sasaki (whose splitter command is finally clicking), while questioning Aaron Nola’s declining command against lefties. The episode ends with a philosophical digression on baseball’s future, arguing that AI-driven systems like ABS (Automated Ball Strike) should remain human-augmented rather than fully automated—preserving the game’s emotional core and human judgment.
Griffin Jacks is the preferred roster choice over Zebby Matthews due to better command, evolving pitch mix, and proven ability to transition to a starter role despite low pitch counts.
Pitchers with 92-93 mph fastballs may now be more effective than 96+ mph pitchers because hitters are adjusted to the new velocity norm, creating timing mismatches.
Gavin Williams is a top buy-low candidate after improving to a 70%+ strike rate across six games, showing consistent command in Cleveland's high-leverage environment.
Roki Sasaki’s splitter command has finally stabilized, making him a high-upside, low-cost addition despite his recent rostering resistance.
Aaron Nola’s struggles against lefties stem from poor command of sinkers and cutters, suggesting he should simplify to a fastball-curveball approach to regain dominance.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Roster Debate: Griffin Jacks vs. Zebby Matthews
“I'm still taking Jack's and the main reason is that I think he survived the transition. I don't know yet. Well, I'm speaking a little bit specifically of the stuff model where he's still above average as a starter with stuff plus.”
The Velocity Timing Theory: Why 92-93 mph Fastballs Might Be Undervalued
“The average fastball Velo is now 95 miles an hour. So they're timed to 95. You come in there with 92. They have to slow it down. It's a little bit why sometimes even a position player will come in and pitch a clean inning.”
Buy-Low Candidates: Gavin Williams and Roki Sasaki
“70% strikes consistently now. And for Gavin, who's never been a... I mean, you tell me, but not a low-stuff guy to finally also have strikes behind it in a situation in Cleveland where they just started by Tito, who went to get another popsicle so they forgot to take out their starter.”
Aaron Nola’s Decline and the Case for Simplification
The hosts analyze Aaron Nola’s recent struggles against lefties, suggesting he should simplify his arsenal to fastball and curveball to regain command and effectiveness.
Fantasy Strategy: When to Buy Low and When to Avoid Risk
The discussion shifts to broader fantasy strategy, emphasizing that buy-low opportunities come from pitchers with improving command, not just poor stats, and that high-upside players like JT Ginn depend on command consistency.
“The average fastball Velo is now 95 miles an hour. So they're timed to 95. You come in there with 92. They have to slow it down. It's a little bit why sometimes even a position player will come in and pitch a clean inning.”
“I'm still taking Jack's and the main reason is that I think he survived the transition. I don't know yet. Well, I'm speaking a little bit specifically of the stuff model where he's still above average as a starter with stuff plus.”
“You're not going to touch this thing. And what does he do? He comes out. Oh boy, guns a blazing. It's like a good month of everything cooking. And then every single time the slider goes away and he loses the slider feel.”
Host
Guest
Griffin Jacks
person
Zebby Matthews
person
Nick Pollock
person
Eno
person
Aaron Nola
person
Gavin Williams
person
Roki Sasaki
person
JT Ginn
person
Sandy Alcantara
person
Troy Melton
person
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