VSiN's Weekend Morning Line | April 11, 2026 | Hour 2
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In this episode of VSiN's Weekend Morning Line, host Tim Murray explores the final stages of the 2026 Masters Tournament with guest Danny Moses, a Wall Street investor turned sports bettor who applies financial risk management and value investing principles to golf betting. Moses shares his strategy of shorting Scottie Scheffler and using the proceeds to back Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy, who he believes is poised to win the Masters with a commanding six-shot lead. He emphasizes the importance of underwriting bets based on fundamental analysis rather than odds, drawing parallels between trading stocks and betting on sports. Later, the show shifts focus to the NBA, discussing the Rookie of the Year race between Cooper Flagg and Conner Knipe, with insights from Jeff Sherman of the Westgate Superbook. Sherman notes the market’s volatility due to low betting limits and conflicting signals from efficiency stats versus the eye test, while also highlighting the unique playoff seeding implications of the Spurs-Nuggets and Lakers-Jazz matchups. The episode concludes with a deep dive into NFL Draft betting, analyzing shifting odds around David Bailey and Jeremiah Love, and stressing the importance of information-based handicapping over personal opinion.
Apply stock market risk management and underwriting principles to sports betting—focus on value, not odds.
Shorting strong favorites like Scottie Scheffler can free up capital to back under-the-radar players with better upside.
Rory McIlroy’s six-shot lead after 36 holes is historically significant; his relaxed mindset post-grand slam may make him unstoppable.
In awards betting, consider not just performance but context—Conner Knipe’s playoff-caliber games may outweigh Cooper Flagg’s raw stats.
NFL Draft betting is information-driven: trust beat reporters and mock drafts over personal opinions, especially when market odds shift rapidly.
…and 2 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Opening the Masters Final Round: Rory's Lead and Betting Strategy
Tim Murray opens the show from the Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas, setting the stage for the Masters final round with Rory McIlroy leading by six shots. He introduces Danny Moses, a Wall Street investor who applies stock trading principles to sports betting.
Danny Moses on Shorting Scheffler and Backing McIlroy
“I don't even think we're going to see a point where we even say to ourselves, Ooh, he bogeyed, you know, Rose or Reed birdied and, or yeah. And then all of a sudden it closes to four. I just... I just think he's going to run away with it.”
Rookie of the Year Debate: Flagg vs. Knipe
“I don't understand how that's not rookie of the year because flag scores two more points a game. It's just bizarre. For me, it's like a no-brainer. I would take Khan.”
Jeff Sherman on the Masters and NBA Market Dynamics
“This has been a wild market because after Bon Temp's straw poll, we had a Kniepo minus $20 and flag 10 to one. And usually those things look definitive, especially this point in the season.”
NFL Draft Betting: Bailey, Love, and Information Over Opinion
“When it comes to rookie of the year market, then you can insert your opinion if you'd like. But that's where I think there is sometimes a challenge for folks.”
“I don't understand how that's not rookie of the year because flag scores two more points a game. It's just bizarre. For me, it's like a no-brainer. I would take Khan.”
“I don't even think we're going to see a point where we even say to ourselves, Ooh, he bogeyed, you know, Rose or Reed birdied and, or yeah. And then all of a sudden it closes to four. I just... I just think he's going to run away with it.”
“It is all information-based. When we are handicapping sports, our opinion certainly should be involved in that. I don't think Michigan is going to beat UConn by more than seven points. I'm going to take the points with UConn, right? You're handicapped. The NFL draft is different.”
Host
Guests
Rory McIlroy
person
Cooper Flagg
person
Conner Knipe
person
Danny Moses
person
Jeff Sherman
person
Westgate Superbook
brand
Scottie Scheffler
person
Calshi
brand
David Bailey
person
Jeremiah Love
person
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