Money Moves | April 20, 2026 | Hour 1

In this hour-long episode of VSiN's Money Moves, host Jonathan Von Tobel dives into the latest sports betting trends across the NBA and NFL playoffs, with a strong focus on home-court advantage in the NBA postseason. He highlights a striking trend: home teams are dominating in the first round, with a 7-1 record straight up and against the spread over the weekend, backed by growing evidence from recent seasons showing a significant increase in home net ratings during playoffs. Von Tobel analyzes key matchups, including Toronto vs. Cleveland and Minnesota vs. Denver, emphasizing player health—particularly Emmanuel Quickley and Anthony Edwards—as critical factors. He advocates for betting the under in several games due to adjusted totals and inefficient shooting. The NFL draft segment features Tim Murray, who discusses prop bets like 'over/under one and a half QBs in the first round,' cautioning against overconfidence in Ty Simpson’s first-round projection. The episode closes with a deep dive into the Lakers vs. Rockets series, featuring insights from former NBA player Ryan Hollins on Kevin Durant’s injury, defensive matchups, and the Rockets' bench depth. A notable moment includes Bill Simmons admitting he changed his Sixth Man of the Year vote after the play-in games, sparking debate about voter integrity. Key takeaways include: (1) Home-court advantage in the NBA playoffs has significantly increased since the return of fans post-COVID, with home teams outscoring opponents by an average of 4.3+ points per 100 possessions in recent years; (2) Betting the under is a strong strategy in high-adjustment totals, especially when key players are questionable; (3) Player health—particularly for stars like Anthony Edwards and Kevin Durant—can drastically alter series dynamics and should be a primary factor in handicapping; (4) The NFL draft market is volatile, and prop bets on first-round QBs should be approached with caution due to trade speculation; (5) Bench depth and defensive versatility are critical in long series, as seen in the Rockets' struggles without key players. The overall sentiment is positive and analytical, with a strong emphasis on data-driven decision-making and strategic betting.