Follow The Money | April 30, 2026 | Hour 2
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In this episode of VSiN Best Bets' 'Follow the Money,' hosts Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard dive into a high-stakes sports betting analysis across NBA, NHL, and the upcoming Kentucky Derby. The discussion kicks off with a deep dive into the Rockets-Lakers playoff series, where the hosts debate the implications of Houston forcing a Game 7 and the potential impact of 'The Extender,' Scott Foster, on series length. They then shift to the Celtics' playoff struggles, with a passionate rant from Moss about Boston’s overreliance on three-point shooting and lack of offensive diversity, despite their success when the shots fall. The NHL segment highlights the volatility of futures markets, with Chris Macero sharing his massive, high-odds bets on the Bruins, Flyers, and Ducks—each tied to dramatic late-season swings. Macero also breaks down the Derby, advocating for a strategic Oaks Derby double using under-the-radar horses like Irad Ortiz’s mount and cautioning against favorites like Renegade and Further Adieu due to poor post positions and excessive early speed. The episode closes with Macero’s bold $20,000 bet on the Marlins to win the most games in May, leveraging their favorable schedule and low odds.
Betting on NHL futures can yield massive returns due to late-season volatility—teams like the Ducks, Flyers, and Bruins saw odds shift dramatically in the final weeks.
The Celtics’ overreliance on three-point shooting is a major strategic flaw; when they miss, they fail to adjust, leading to predictable collapses.
In the Kentucky Derby, avoid favorites with poor post positions (e.g., Renegade in post 1) and favor horses with strong late-closing ability and favorable pacing (e.g., Dannen Bourbon, So Happy).
Use strategic parlay combinations like the Oaks Derby Double with 4, 10, 11, and 3 of 5 Derby contenders to maximize value on low-cost tickets.
The Marlins are a strong, under-the-radar pick for most wins in May due to their high game count (29) and favorable schedule, offering massive odds for a small bet.
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Lakers & Celtics' Shooting Rant
“I just can't stand watching it. Like they keep shooting the threes on the fourth quarter of the other night. And I had, I actually had the Sixers plus the points and a little bit on the money line. So I was happy that the way it worked out.”
NHL Futures & Late-Season Volatility
“It's just unbelievable, the swings in hockey. Same with Buffalo. Same with Montreal. The teams that win the division. Tampa was favored to win the division the whole time with huge odds. And you could have taken – I mean, Buffalo got the job done.”
Kentucky Derby Breakdown: Oaks & Derby Strategy
“I'm throwing out Renegade on top. I'm throwing out further ado. I don't I just I don't think I think Renegade can hit the board, but I just don't think From that post, it's just a tie.”
High-Risk, High-Reward Bets: Marlins & Parlays
Macero reveals his $20,000 bet on the Marlins to win the most games in May, citing their schedule and run differential. He also outlines a low-cost, high-value Oaks Derby Double and a $36 Super ticket with bombs like Golden Tempo and Incredibolt.
The Power of Data & Market Inefficiencies
The episode emphasizes the importance of using data tools like Daily Racing Forms to uncover value. Macero stresses that betting isn't about picking pretty names but about exploiting market inefficiencies and late-season swings.
“It's just unbelievable, the swings in hockey. Same with Buffalo. Same with Montreal. The teams that win the division.”
“You're getting Cherie DeVoe, one of the best trainers in the country. You're getting Jose Artis, one of the greatest shockeys in the country. That is a huge, ridiculous price for me.”
“I just can't stand watching it. Like they keep shooting the threes on the fourth quarter of the other night.”
Hosts
Guest
Chris Macero
person
Kentucky Derby
other
Boston Celtics
other
NHL
other
Mitch Moss
person
Pauly Howard
person
New York Knicks
other
Philadelphia 76ers
other
Boston Bruins
other
Houston Rockets
other
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