Follow The Money | April 14, 2026 | Hour 3
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In the third hour of 'Follow the Money' on VSiN Best Bets, hosts Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard dive deep into the NBA playoffs, focusing on the controversial Spurs' decision to potentially rest key players against the Nuggets, which they analyze as a strategic move to preserve health and avoid overexposure. Senior writer Matt Moore of Action Network joins to argue that Denver’s superior spacing and depth make them strong favorites over Minnesota in the first round, despite the Wolves’ recent dominance. The discussion shifts to East playoff projections, with Moore making bold picks like the Knicks over the Hawks and the Raptors upsetting the Cavs, citing roster inexperience and defensive inefficiencies. The hosts then scrutinize the upcoming play-in games, with a strong emphasis on the Hornets vs. Heat matchup, where Charlotte’s superior efficiency and recent form are highlighted despite Miami’s playoff experience. Later, Derek Stevens of Circa Las Vegas discusses how prediction markets have impacted betting handles, especially after the Masters, noting that while revenue remains stable, sharp action in prediction markets has diluted overall volume. He also shares his skepticism about offering props on events with predictable outcomes, calling them unbookable. The episode closes with a recap of live bets and upcoming action, including high-profile props and playoff series projections.
San Antonio’s decision to rest key players against Denver is a calculated risk to preserve health and avoid early playoff fatigue.
Denver’s improved spacing and depth—especially with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Aaron Gordon—give them a significant edge over Minnesota.
The Knicks are favored over the Hawks due to their ability to exploit Atlanta’s weak rim protection in small-ball lineups.
The Raptors are seen as a viable upset threat against the Cavs, driven by lineup versatility and Toronto’s strong bench shooting.
Charlotte’s superior efficiency differential since January 1st makes them the better team despite Miami’s playoff experience.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Spurs' Strategic Rest vs. Nuggets: Health Over Seed
“When you've locked your seed... whoever plays you is like, that's their problem. And so I don't really mind San Antonio and how they kind of approached it.”
Denver vs. Minnesota: Spacing and Experience
“Denver's had a lot of success. It's going to be a tough series. Minnesota's a really good team. They made the Western Conference Finals two years in a row and they won this series. I'm not going to be like, oh my, how?”
Play-In Games: Hornets vs. Heat and the Efficiency Gap
“Since the beginning of this year, when the calendar flipped to January 1st, 33-16, the second best efficiency differential in the entire league at plus 11.5.”
Prediction Markets and the Masters: Impact on Betting
“Our revenue hasn't declined. Our revenue's been fine. But all that big, sharp handle, I think has impacted the overall handle.”
Props, Play-In Strategy, and the Future of Betting
The hosts discuss the viability of props on events with known outcomes, with Stevens arguing they’re unbookable. They also preview upcoming live betting action, including the Hornets vs. Heat play-in game and the potential for high-value props on the NBA playoffs.
“We give the best odds out every day. Why are we doing this? He goes, well, it's good customer service. I go, there's not a lot of retail play on this. Every guy that's going to bet is going to win.”
“Our revenue hasn't declined. Our revenue's been fine. But all that big, sharp handle, I think has impacted the overall handle.”
“When you've locked your seed... whoever plays you is like, that's their problem. And so I don't really mind San Antonio and how they kind of approached it.”
Hosts
Guests
Pauly Howard
person
Denver Nuggets
other
Mitch Moss
person
Charlotte Hornets
other
Miami Heat
other
VSiN Best Bets
media
San Antonio Spurs
other
Minnesota Timberwolves
other
Matt Moore
person
Circa Las Vegas
organization
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