Follow The Money | April 14, 2026 | Hour 3

VSiN Best Bets45mApril 14, 2026

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AI-Generated Summary

In the third hour of 'Follow the Money' on VSiN Best Bets, hosts Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard dive deep into the NBA playoffs, focusing on the controversial Spurs' decision to potentially rest key players against the Nuggets, which they analyze as a strategic move to preserve health and avoid overexposure. Senior writer Matt Moore of Action Network joins to argue that Denver’s superior spacing and depth make them strong favorites over Minnesota in the first round, despite the Wolves’ recent dominance. The discussion shifts to East playoff projections, with Moore making bold picks like the Knicks over the Hawks and the Raptors upsetting the Cavs, citing roster inexperience and defensive inefficiencies. The hosts then scrutinize the upcoming play-in games, with a strong emphasis on the Hornets vs. Heat matchup, where Charlotte’s superior efficiency and recent form are highlighted despite Miami’s playoff experience. Later, Derek Stevens of Circa Las Vegas discusses how prediction markets have impacted betting handles, especially after the Masters, noting that while revenue remains stable, sharp action in prediction markets has diluted overall volume. He also shares his skepticism about offering props on events with predictable outcomes, calling them unbookable. The episode closes with a recap of live bets and upcoming action, including high-profile props and playoff series projections.

Key Takeaways
1

San Antonio’s decision to rest key players against Denver is a calculated risk to preserve health and avoid early playoff fatigue.

2

Denver’s improved spacing and depth—especially with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Aaron Gordon—give them a significant edge over Minnesota.

3

The Knicks are favored over the Hawks due to their ability to exploit Atlanta’s weak rim protection in small-ball lineups.

4

The Raptors are seen as a viable upset threat against the Cavs, driven by lineup versatility and Toronto’s strong bench shooting.

5

Charlotte’s superior efficiency differential since January 1st makes them the better team despite Miami’s playoff experience.

…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus

Chapters
0:00
10 min

Spurs' Strategic Rest vs. Nuggets: Health Over Seed

When you've locked your seed... whoever plays you is like, that's their problem. And so I don't really mind San Antonio and how they kind of approached it.

Highlight
10:00
10 min

Denver vs. Minnesota: Spacing and Experience

Denver's had a lot of success. It's going to be a tough series. Minnesota's a really good team. They made the Western Conference Finals two years in a row and they won this series. I'm not going to be like, oh my, how?

Highlight
20:00
10 min

Play-In Games: Hornets vs. Heat and the Efficiency Gap

Since the beginning of this year, when the calendar flipped to January 1st, 33-16, the second best efficiency differential in the entire league at plus 11.5.

Highlight
30:00
10 min

Prediction Markets and the Masters: Impact on Betting

Our revenue hasn't declined. Our revenue's been fine. But all that big, sharp handle, I think has impacted the overall handle.

Highlight
40:00
10 min

Props, Play-In Strategy, and the Future of Betting

The hosts discuss the viability of props on events with known outcomes, with Stevens arguing they’re unbookable. They also preview upcoming live betting action, including the Hornets vs. Heat play-in game and the potential for high-value props on the NBA playoffs.

High-Impact Quotes
We give the best odds out every day. Why are we doing this? He goes, well, it's good customer service. I go, there's not a lot of retail play on this. Every guy that's going to bet is going to win.
Derek Stevens28:12
Viral: 90.0
Our revenue hasn't declined. Our revenue's been fine. But all that big, sharp handle, I think has impacted the overall handle.
Derek Stevens24:33
Viral: 88.0
When you've locked your seed... whoever plays you is like, that's their problem. And so I don't really mind San Antonio and how they kind of approached it.
Matt Moore1:31
Viral: 85.0
Speakers

Hosts

Mitch MossPauly Howard

Guests

Matt MooreDerek Stevens
Topics Discussed
NBA Playoffs Strategy92%Prediction Markets and Betting Handles90%Team Efficiency and Performance Metrics88%Team Health and Roster Management87%Play-In Tournament Dynamics85%Prop Betting Viability82%Betting on High-Profile Events80%Player Inexperience in Playoffs78%
People & Brands

Pauly Howard

person

25xPositive

Denver Nuggets

other

22xPositive

Mitch Moss

person

20xPositive

Charlotte Hornets

other

18xPositive

Miami Heat

other

16xNeutral

VSiN Best Bets

media

15xPositive

San Antonio Spurs

other

15xNeutral

Minnesota Timberwolves

other

14xNeutral

Matt Moore

person

12xPositive

Circa Las Vegas

organization

12xPositive

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