Episode 102 - Toronto Under Construction with Mike Czestochowski of CBRE, Josh Lerner of Harbour Equity, and Sharon Florian of Florian Group

In this candid and insightful episode of Toronto Under Construction, host Ben Myers convenes a roundtable with three industry leaders—Sharon Florian of Florian Real Estate Group, Mike Czestochowski of CBRE, and Josh Lerner of Harbour Equity—to dissect the current state of Toronto's real estate market. The conversation reveals a market in deep correction, marked by stalled condo developments, distressed land sales, and a significant decline in investor confidence. Despite the turmoil, the guests agree that the fundamentals of Toronto’s economy and population growth remain strong, with the city’s diversity and resilience offering long-term stability. They highlight a growing shift toward purpose-built rental, value-add investments, and low-rise developments, while cautioning against new high-rise pre-construction projects due to oversupply and weak demand. The panel emphasizes that timing is critical, with many predicting a market turnaround around 2028–2029, driven by a looming supply cliff. They also call for urgent policy changes—such as HST and DC relief, 105% financing, and faster approvals—to stimulate activity and prevent a prolonged downturn. The episode closes with a rapid-fire segment offering sharp, humorous insights into market realities, from AI agents to condo fees and developer behavior. Key takeaways include: (1) The high-density land market remains frozen, with 75% of CBRE’s listings now distressed; (2) Developers are shifting from condos to rental and low-rise projects due to risk and demand shifts; (3) A supply shortage is expected by 2028–2029, which will likely trigger a sharp rebound in prices and rents; (4) Policy uncertainty—especially around HST, DCs, and foreign buyer rules—is a major deterrent to market recovery; (5) The most resilient investors are those who are patient, value-focused, and willing to act when the market shows signs of turning. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, grounded in realism, and focused on long-term structural recovery rather than short-term speculation.