The 2026 Market: What to Tell Your Clients Right Now

The Tom Ferry Podcast Experience32mMay 21, 2026

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AI-Generated Summary

The U.S. real estate market in 2026 is not collapsing — it's evolving. Despite rising foreclosures, inventory, and persistent mortgage rates near 6.5%, the market remains fundamentally strong due to historically high homeowner equity, low delinquency rates, and a borrower base far more financially stable than in 2008. Tom Ferry and guest David Childers dismantle the fear-driven narrative by revealing that only 100,000 foreclosure filings occur per quarter — a fraction of the 9 million seen during the housing crisis. They emphasize that 75% of homeowners have mortgages below 6%, and two-thirds either own their homes outright or have 50%+ equity. The real story isn't a national crash, but a deep bifurcation: prices are flat or slightly down in high-inventory markets like Texas and Florida, while high-demand areas with limited supply — especially in desirable school districts and four-bedroom homes — remain hot. The key takeaway? Agents who educate clients with data-driven insights, not fear, become irreplaceable. By showing clients precise market trends, pricing strategies, and equity advantages, agents can build trust, close more deals, and thrive in uncertainty. The episode delivers a powerful message: in a world of noise, the most valuable asset isn’t a listing or a lead — it’s the ability to be the trusted, data-backed educator.

Key Takeaways
1

Mortgage rates are expected to remain flat near 6.5% through 2026, with no significant drops anticipated — but 75% of homeowners have rates below 6%.

2

Only 100,000 foreclosure filings occur per quarter — a fraction of the 9 million during 2008 — and most homeowners have equity to avoid distress.

3

Two-thirds of U.S. homeowners either own their home free and clear or have 50%+ equity, making mass foreclosures highly unlikely.

4

Inventory is up 5% nationally but still 13% below 2019 levels; the real estate market is deeply bifurcated by location, school district, and home size.

5

The average homeowner has gained $128,000 in equity over the last six years — a powerful financial buffer no one should ignore.

…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus

Chapters
0:00
5 min

The 2026 Market Reality: Beyond the Fear

We live in the strongest real estate market of our lifetime. There is not a case to be made for a national foreclosure wave.

Highlight
5:00
5 min

Mortgage Rates: The Flatline Reality

David Childers debunks the myth of imminent rate drops. Despite geopolitical turmoil and Fed speculation, projections show rates staying flat in the low sixes. He emphasizes that even if rates dip briefly, it will be a 'blip on the radar.' The real story: 75% of homeowners already have rates under 6%.

10:00
5 min

Inventory: The Bifurcation Myth

While national inventory is up 5%, it’s still 13% below 2019 levels. The real story is regional: Northeast states like New York and New Hampshire are down 40-50%, while Texas and Florida see inventory growth. The market isn’t collapsing — it’s shifting.

15:00
5 min

Sellers’ Delusion vs. Market Reality

The longer the home is on the market, the bigger the price cut becomes. That makes perfect sense, but being able to show somebody the actual information here... is unreal.

Highlight
20:00
5 min

The Top 50 Markets: Where Prices Are Falling

David breaks down the top 50 markets, showing that red states (like Texas, Florida, California) are down 2-3%, but have still seen 60-70% appreciation over the last five years. The real issue isn’t a crash — it’s a correction in overvalued markets with rising supply.

High-Impact Quotes
We live in the strongest real estate market of our lifetime. There is not a case to be made for a national foreclosure wave.
David Childers27:29
Viral: 92.0
You can take this information and go, here's what I see happening. And you don't have to agree with me. You can apply your expertise in your market and say, here's what I see happening.
David Childers31:19
Viral: 82.0
Taking just a few minutes to show people this is what's happening in the market, I think is sort of the difference maker by far.
David Childers4:45
Viral: 78.0
Speakers

Host

Tom Ferry

Guest

David Childers
Topics Discussed
real estate market trends95%homeowner equity92%mortgage rates 202690%agent education strategies90%bifurcated housing market89%foreclosure trends88%precision pricing87%home inventory levels85%
People & Brands

David Childers

person

18xPositive

Tom Ferry

person

12xPositive

Patrick Bet-David

person

4xNeutral

TomFerry.com

organization

4xPositive

Federal Reserve

organization

2xNeutral

YouTube

organization

2xNeutral

Michelle

person

2xPositive

Success Summit

other

2xPositive

Steve Harney

person

1xNeutral

Polymarket

organization

1xNeutral

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