Our Top 150 Big Board Risers and Fallers. Plus, Don’t Be Surprised If …
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In this episode of The McShay Show, host Mel Kiper Jr. and co-host Mitch Goldich dive into their updated Top 150 NFL Draft board, just 17 days before the draft. They discuss key risers and fallers, with a focus on positional value, team needs, and NFL front office conversations. Key risers include Carnell Tate, who’s projected to go higher than expected due to his elite route-running and zero drops this season, and Devin Moore, a physically gifted corner with injury history but elite athleticism who could be a late-round steal. Fallers include Avion Terrell, whose poor pro day performance and hamstring issues may drop him, and Jeremy Bernard, whose grade fell from 50 to 78 due to concerns about his size, route running, and consistency. The hosts debate the top 11 players likely to go in the top 12 picks, highlighting Arvel Reese, Fernando Mendoza, and Sonny Stiles as elite prospects, while also discussing the evolving landscape of the cornerback position, with Jermod McCoy now ranked as a top-10 talent after a strong pro day despite a year-long absence. They also introduce the 'Don’t Be Surprised If...' segment, spotlighting under-the-radar players like Moore and the potential for Ohio State’s Stiles and Tate to land in the top five. The episode closes with a preview of upcoming content, including a mock draft 4.0 and final board updates.
Carnell Tate is a top-tier receiver with elite route-running and zero drops; he could be a top-5 pick despite being mocked later.
Devin Moore, despite injury history, has elite size and speed; if healthy, he could be a steal in the late rounds.
Jermod McCoy is now a top-10 corner after a strong pro day, though his absence from the 2024 season raises questions about his readiness.
Sonny Stiles and Carnell Tate may go in the top five due to elite traits and strong NFL team interest.
The offensive tackle and edge rusher positions are deep, driving early value and creating positional runs.
…and 2 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Top 150 Launch & Draft Countdown
“Last five years, no one has been more accurate in the top 100. 86 out of 100 is what I've averaged.”
The 17 'Lock' First-Rounders
“There are 17 guys in this draft that are first-rounders in every draft, and I'm going to rip through them real quickly.”
Risers: Tate, Moore, McCoy & Stiles
“Don’t be surprised if Devin Moore turns into one of the steals in this draft.”
Fallers: Terrell, Bernard & Inatchor
Avion Terrell and Jeremy Bernard are discussed as fallers due to poor pro day performances and concerns about size, consistency, and production. Maxie Inatchor is also noted as potentially overvalued due to developmental concerns.
Positional Value & Draft Strategy
The hosts analyze how positional value drives draft board movement, especially for offensive tackles and edge rushers. They explain why clusters of high-graded players (like 90+ grades) are grouped together and how team needs influence rankings.
“I'm looking for Sully landing my plane in the Hudson. And that's what Delaney is.”
“Last five years, no one has been more accurate in the top 100. 86 out of 100 is what I've averaged.”
“Don’t be surprised if Devin Moore turns into one of the steals in this draft.”
Hosts
Mel Kiper Jr.
person
Mitch Goldich
person
Carnell Tate
person
Jermod McCoy
person
Devin Moore
person
Sonny Stiles
person
Ohio State
other
Mansoor Delaney
person
Jeremy Bernard
person
Arvel Reese
person
A Taylen Green Epiphany. Plus, Indiana and Jermod McCoy Pro Day Reactions.
The McShay Show • 1h 7m • 4/1/2026
Will Mendoza or Cousins Start? Plus, the Draft Outliers Confidence Index With Bain, Simpson, Lemon, and More.
The McShay Show • 53m • 4/3/2026
Emptying the NFL Draft Notebook With Albert Breer
The McShay Show • 1h 27m • 4/8/2026
First-Round Pivot Points, Jordyn Tyson Stock Watch, and the McShay Mailbag
The McShay Show • 1h 15m • 4/10/2026
Our Top-200 Big Board: Stacking Safeties, Second-Tier Edges, and WR Intel
The McShay Show • 1h 15m • 4/13/2026
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