Rational Security: The "Middle-Aged Dads" Edition

In this episode of The Lawfare Podcast's Rational Security series, host Scott R. Anderson is joined by senior editors Mike Feinberg and Dana Stuster to dissect three major national security developments: the Trump administration's high-stakes summit with China, the stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, and a controversial CIA covert assassination campaign in Mexico targeting cartel members. The discussion reveals deep skepticism about the administration's transactional foreign policy, particularly its prioritization of corporate interests over strategic alliances. On China, the panel warns that the inclusion of Silicon Valley CEOs in the delegation signals a shift toward economic concessions at the expense of Taiwan's security, potentially undermining decades of U.S. strategic ambiguity. On Iran, they critique the war as a costly, strategically incoherent endeavor that has failed to achieve its objectives while inflating global oil prices and damaging regional stability. The Mexico story raises serious legal and ethical concerns about the use of targeted assassinations against non-state actors, especially without clear consent from a sovereign ally. Throughout, the hosts emphasize a recurring theme: a troubling lack of foresight regarding second- and third-order consequences in U.S. foreign policy decisions. The episode concludes with a heartfelt appeal for listener support to sustain Lawfare’s nonprofit mission of providing rigorous, nonpartisan national security analysis. Key takeaways include: (1) The U.S. should not trade strategic commitments to allies like Taiwan for short-term economic gains; (2) Military adventurism without clear strategic objectives leads to unintended consequences and strategic degradation; (3) The use of lethal force against non-state actors in allied nations requires robust legal and political oversight; (4) Foreign policy should be guided by long-term strategic thinking, not political optics; (5) The U.S. must maintain credibility in its security commitments to preserve global alliances; (6) Covert operations, especially those involving assassination, risk destabilizing relationships with key partners; (7) National security decisions must account for economic, geopolitical, and moral dimensions; (8) Nonprofit journalism like Lawfare plays a vital role in holding power accountable and informing public discourse.