Lawfare Daily: Joel Braunold on West Bank Violence and Israel’s New Lebanon Offensive
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This episode of The Lawfare Podcast examines the escalating violence in the West Bank and Israel's new military offensive in southern Lebanon, contextualizing both within the broader Israeli political landscape and regional dynamics. Joel Braunold, Managing Director of the Center Project, details how settler violence—backed by state institutions and encouraged through infrastructure and weaponry—has surged since October 7th, with Palestinian civilians bearing the brunt of the violence. Despite official denials, the scale of attacks, including murders of U.S. citizens and IDF suppression of journalists, has prompted rare internal criticism from Israeli religious leaders and military officials. The episode also analyzes Israel's controversial new death penalty law for Palestinians convicted in military courts, which critics see as a populist, discriminatory measure designed to appease right-wing factions ahead of the upcoming election. Simultaneously, Israel's military campaign in Lebanon, framed as a bid to create a security buffer against Hezbollah, has failed to achieve lasting stability, with ongoing rocket fire rendering northern communities uninhabitable. Braunold argues that Netanyahu's strategy of military dominance over diplomacy has reached its limits, and that without a political solution to the Palestinian issue, regional normalization—especially with Saudi Arabia—remains unattainable. The Israeli election, scheduled for October, is portrayed as a pivotal moment where Netanyahu's survival hinges not just on security performance but on his ability to articulate a coherent vision for the Palestinians, a task he has thus far avoided.
Settler violence in the West Bank has escalated to daily, state-encouraged attacks on Palestinian civilians, with the IDF and police failing to intervene despite growing internal criticism.
Israel's new death penalty law for Palestinians convicted in military courts is widely seen as a discriminatory, populist move that undermines judicial fairness and will likely be struck down by the Supreme Court.
Israel's offensive in southern Lebanon has failed to create a lasting security buffer, with Hezbollah maintaining rocket capabilities and northern communities remaining under constant threat.
Netanyahu's reliance on military force over diplomacy has exhausted Israel's strategic capacity and risks deepening regional instability, especially as the war with Iran continues.
The Palestinian issue remains the key to unlocking regional normalization, particularly with Saudi Arabia, but no progress can be made without a credible political process post-election.
The West Bank Violence Crisis
“The Palestinians have killed 378 Israelis in the West Bank since 2008... Israelis have killed 2,076 Palestinians since 2008. And of those, 840 Palestinian civilians have been killed since 2023. That’s 20 times the number of Israeli civilians.”
The Death Penalty Law and State Backing of Violence
“This is not retroactive, so it doesn't apply to the people who committed October 7th... It's very clear according to most legal commentators that this is basically to exempt Jewish extremist violence against Arabs.”
The Lebanon Offensive and Strategic Failure
“If you create that many internally displaced people and destroy all of their property... you are the best recruiting sergeant for Hezbollah who says, 'Look, LAF isn't defending you. We'll defend you.'”
The Palestinian Issue as the Key to Regional Peace
Braunold argues that the Palestinian issue is the essential off-ramp for the broader regional conflict, particularly in relation to Iran and Saudi normalization. Without progress on Palestinian self-determination, regional integration efforts will stall, and Israel’s long-term security will remain compromised.
The Israeli Election and the Crisis of Leadership
The episode explores how Netanyahu’s political survival is tied to military performance, but his failure to articulate a vision for the Palestinians undermines Israel’s international standing. The upcoming election is framed as a test of whether Israel can move beyond military dominance to a coherent political strategy.
“The only people who have been able to say what they're for have been Smotrich, Benghra and their crowd that are for ethnic cleansing, right? For all the population to leave.”
“This is not retroactive, so it doesn't apply to the people who committed October 7th... It's very clear according to most legal commentators that this is basically to exempt Jewish extremist violence against Arabs.”
“If you create that many internally displaced people and destroy all of their property... you are the best recruiting sergeant for Hezbollah who says, 'Look, LAF isn't defending you. We'll defend you.'”
Host
Guest
Benjamin Netanyahu
person
Hezbollah
organization
Iran
place
Itamar Ben-Gvir
person
Bezalel Smotrich
person
Joel Braunold
person
Palestinian Authority
organization
United States
place
Hamas
organization
Scott R. Anderson
person
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