Lawfare Daily: Russian PMCs Update with Candace Rondeaux

In this episode of the Lawfare Podcast, Justin Sherman interviews Candace Rondeau, founder of Frontline Atlas and a professor at Arizona State University, about the evolving state of Russian private military companies (PMCs) and their global operations. Rondeau provides a detailed analysis of the post-Wagner Group landscape, explaining how the organization fragmented into three main branches: the First Volunteer Corps under Russia's National Guard, a Belarus-based contingent, and the Afrika Korps—now managed by the GRU and operating across Africa. She highlights the increasing militarization of Russia's shadow fleet, where PMCs like Moran Security Group and former Wagner fighters are deployed aboard illicit tankers to protect oil shipments, conduct surveillance, and even engage in sabotage. The discussion reveals a growing nexus between Russian and Iranian maritime networks, facilitated through shared brokers and financial rails in Dubai, enabling both countries to circumvent sanctions. Rondeau also examines the deteriorating situation in Mali, where rebel forces have overrun Russian bases, citing internal dissent, low morale, and improved rebel capabilities as key factors. The episode concludes with a call for stronger U.S. policy, including passage of the HARM Act and enhanced shadow fleet monitoring, to counter these transnational threats and hold Russian actors accountable for war crimes. Key takeaways include: 1) The Wagner Group’s dissolution led to a decentralized PMC ecosystem now managed by the Russian state through entities like Redoute and the GRU; 2) The shadow fleet is no longer just a sanctions evasion tool but a dual-use platform for surveillance, sabotage, and military overwatch; 3) Russia and Iran are developing deep, overlapping maritime and financial networks that challenge Western economic warfare; 4) The Afrika Korps is facing strategic setbacks in Africa due to internal issues and rising rebel sophistication; 5) Legal avenues like the African Court of Human Rights may become critical for holding PMCs accountable. Overall, the episode underscores the transformation of Russian PMCs from battlefield mercenaries into a global, state-backed hybrid threat with far-reaching implications for international security and law enforcement.