Lawfare Daily: Arne Westad on ‘The Coming Storm’

In this episode of Lawfare Daily, senior editor Michael Feinberg interviews Professor Arne Westad of Yale University about his book 'The Coming Storm,' which draws stark parallels between the geopolitical tensions leading up to World War I and today's global landscape, particularly focusing on the rise of China and U.S.-China relations. Westad argues that both eras share key dynamics: the rise of a new great power (Germany in 1914, China today), the retreat of the dominant power (Britain then, the U.S. now), and the failure to create stable frameworks for coexistence. He warns that personalized, impulsive leadership—exemplified by figures like Wilhelm II and Donald Trump—can dangerously escalate crises, especially in the absence of strategic foresight. The conversation turns to specific flashpoints like Taiwan, Iran, and the Korean Peninsula, emphasizing that while war is not inevitable, the current trajectory risks a catastrophic conflagration. Westad advocates for pragmatic diplomacy, temporary compromises, and a focus on 'playing for time' to avoid great power war, drawing lessons from the 19th-century Concert of Europe and the failure of long-term planning in both nations. He cautions against misreading historical analogies, such as the 'Thucydides Trap,' and stresses that the real danger lies in the lack of lived experience with great power war among today’s leaders and populations.