The Iran War Expert: The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now

In this high-stakes episode of 'The Diary of a CEO,' host Steven Bartlett welcomes Professor Robert Pape, a leading expert on military strategy and the author of 'Bombing to Win,' to dissect the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Pape argues that the U.S. has failed to weaken Iran through bombing campaigns, instead strengthening it by inadvertently fueling nationalism, deepening its underground infrastructure, and accelerating its nuclear ambitions. He outlines a dangerous 'escalation trap' with four stages, now at a critical fork: either a costly ground war or the emergence of Iran as a fourth global power, reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East and beyond. Pape warns that President Trump’s rhetoric—particularly his threat to 'end a whole civilization'—has not only hardened Iranian resolve but also undermined the pro-democracy movement within Iran. He critiques Israel’s role as a 'diplomatic spoiler' and reveals how NATO is effectively dead in practice, with European allies refusing to follow U.S. military orders. The episode concludes with a sobering call for centrist political solutions to avoid a cycle of extremism and escalating violence, both internationally and domestically.