Dan Griswold — Can You Win a Trade War?

In this episode of The Curious Task, host Alex Aragona interviews Dan Griswold, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center and co-director of its Trade and Immigration Project, about the consequences of the Trump administration's trade war, particularly with China. Griswold argues that trade wars are not winnable and are, in fact, costly lose-lose propositions that harm consumers, disrupt supply chains, and reduce national GDP. Drawing on historical parallels to the Great Depression and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, he emphasizes that protectionism leads to retaliatory measures, as seen when Canada, the EU, and China responded to U.S. tariffs. He also highlights the broader benefits of globalization—such as increased life expectancy, poverty reduction, and global peace through economic interdependence—and counters the argument that the COVID-19 pandemic justifies a retreat from trade, likening it to abandoning electricity after a power outage. Griswold stresses that tariffs are ultimately paid by American consumers, not foreign countries, and calls for Congress to reclaim its constitutional authority over trade policy, criticizing the executive branch's overreach. The episode concludes with a strong endorsement of free trade as a win-win policy for all nations involved.