Why Gas Prices Can’t Wreck the Market

In this episode of The Compound and Friends, hosts Josh Brown and Michael Batnick explore why soaring gas prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not triggered a major market sell-off, despite expectations. The discussion centers on the resilience of the S&P 500, which has shrugged off a spike in WTI crude oil prices and a record-high Brent oil price since 2008. Key reasons include a historically oversupplied oil market, alternative shipping routes around the Strait of Hormuz, and the fact that energy now represents a smaller share of consumer spending (3.7% in 2026 vs. 6% in the 1990s). The market’s complacency is attributed to strong consumer spending, earnings growth, and institutional investors’ reluctance to overreact—fear of losing clients by panicking during downturns. The episode also examines the private credit sector, where headlines about redemptions from Blue Owl’s funds are downplayed due to modest net outflows and strong investor retention. Despite concerns, the system is not systemic like 2008, with private credit being less leveraged and more diversified. The conversation wraps with speculation on SpaceX’s upcoming IPO—potentially the largest in history—and the irony of calling market tops, especially when multiple high-profile tech IPOs could coincide with a peak. The show closes with personal reflections on travel, activism at Snap, and the enduring power of music and community.