Arash Azizi and Jodi Kantor: Iran Has the Leverage
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In this expansive episode of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller engages in a deep, nuanced discussion with Arash Azizi, a historian and Yale lecturer, on the current geopolitical standoff between the U.S. and Iran. Azizi provides a clear-eyed analysis of the fragile negotiations surrounding the blockade, Project Freedom, and the potential for a deal, emphasizing that Iran’s leverage lies not in military dominance but in its ability to disrupt global energy markets and endure economic hardship. He challenges common Western narratives about regime collapse and internal fragmentation, arguing that Iran’s leadership, while ideologically divided, remains cohesive in pursuing pragmatic deals. Azizi also explores the deep disconnect between the Iranian people’s desire for a normal life and the regime’s ideological agenda, and offers a historically grounded vision of Iranian nationalism as non-aligned and independent. The episode then shifts to a powerful conversation with Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Jodi Cantor, who discusses her new book, How to Start Discovering Your Life's Work, offering candid, hopeful advice to young people navigating a disorienting job market. Cantor draws from her own experiences, including confronting Harvey Weinstein and reporting on the Supreme Court’s shadow docket, to advocate for resilience, curiosity, and rejecting cynicism in the face of systemic challenges. Her central message: failure is inevitable, but giving up is the real defeat.
Iran’s leverage stems from its ability to disrupt global energy flows and endure prolonged economic pressure, not from military strength.
Despite ideological divisions, Iran’s leadership is more cohesive than commonly believed, driven by pragmatic self-preservation.
The Iranian people overwhelmingly desire a normal life, not regime change, and are deeply alienated from the regime’s foreign policy agenda.
Young people should resist cynicism and embrace experimentation, as career paths are no longer linear or predictable.
Work can be a source of meaning and fulfillment, even in difficult times, but only if approached with courage and curiosity.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Welcome and Introduction to Arash Azizi
Tim Miller introduces the episode, welcoming listeners and setting the stage for a deep dive into Iran’s current geopolitical situation with historian Arash Azizi.
Iran’s Leverage and the State of Play
“Iran’s leverage is that they think Trump is reluctant to return to the war and it considers it sort of unpopular war, which it is.”
The Myth of Iranian Regime Collapse
“It reminds me of a country of 90 million. It has tons of borders with different countries. It has different sort of resourcefulness methods. It will be able to keep something going on for nine years.”
Inside Iran: Cohesion vs. Hardliners
“These hardliners are a minority and the regime's main bodies are actually pretty cohesive.”
Iran’s Economic Crisis and Public Sentiment
Azizi shares insights from conversations with Iranians, describing a society in limbo—rich elites partying in anticipation of collapse, while ordinary people face impossible economic hardship.
“Jodi, I've been very successful. He actually was on the cusp of meeting somebody great, marrying her. But he said for people like you and me, there are always going to be work opportunities, but finding someone to love is the hardest thing.”
“Do not give up before you even start. Frustration and disappointment are certain. Failure is possible. But if you abdicate the search for satisfaction now, you will put it further out of reach.”
“It reminds me of a country of 90 million. It has tons of borders with different countries. It has different sort of resourcefulness methods. It will be able to keep something going on for nine years.”
Host
Guests
Iran
place
United States
place
Arash Azizi
person
Trump
person
Jodi Cantor
person
Tim Miller
person
IRGC
organization
Supreme Court
organization
Harvey Weinstein
person
Strait of Hormuz
other
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