Robert Kagan: We’re Transitioning to a Post-American World
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In this pivotal episode of The Bulwark Podcast, host Tim Miller engages in a sobering conversation with foreign policy expert Robert Kagan about the geopolitical fallout of Donald Trump's aggressive military campaign against Iran. Kagan argues that the U.S. is not only failing to achieve its strategic objectives but is actively dismantling the post-World War II international order it once helped build. He warns that the war has accelerated America's isolation, undermined NATO, and emboldened adversaries like China and Russia. Despite overwhelming military superiority, the U.S. cannot finish the war without a costly ground invasion, which it refuses to undertake—leaving Iran intact and the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian influence. Kagan emphasizes that the war was not driven by national security interests but by Trump’s transactional politics, personal ego, and a reckless desire for glory. He also highlights how the U.S. has alienated allies in Europe and Asia, with South Korea and Japan now considering nuclear armament and strategic realignment. The episode concludes with a chilling warning: the U.S. may now be on the brink of a post-American world, where its credibility is shattered and the risk of nuclear escalation—especially under a mentally declining Trump—has dramatically increased.
The U.S. cannot win the Iran war without a full-scale ground invasion, which it refuses to commit to, leaving the conflict unresolved.
Trump’s actions have accelerated America’s global isolation and damaged alliances with NATO, South Korea, Japan, and Gulf states.
The U.S. is losing its strategic grip on the Persian Gulf, with Iran and China poised to dominate the Strait of Hormuz and challenge the petrodollar system.
The war has undermined U.S. credibility, with allies now questioning American reliability and considering nuclear options or alignment with China.
The erosion of American global leadership has created a dangerous power vacuum, increasing the risk of future conflicts, including nuclear escalation.
The Iran War: A Strategic Failure
“We have learned before that bombing alone wasn't going to do it and now we've had the most abject demonstration possible because it's been a free fly, pretty much.”
The Myth of American Dominance
“We can get into this, but how to open the strait is not something that's going to be accomplished by air and sea power alone.”
The Collapse of the Global Order
“We will go from having been the dominant player to one of several players maybe, or we will basically have lost our influence in the region.”
America’s Moral and Strategic Contradictions
Kagan critiques the inconsistency in U.S. foreign policy, arguing that involvement in the Middle East was never truly about national security but about maintaining a global order that now no longer serves American interests.
The Rise of China and the Fall of Trust
The discussion turns to how China is capitalizing on U.S. missteps, with the potential for a petroyuan system and regional realignment in Asia and the Middle East.
“If you'd asked me in the year 2020, who is the most likely country to be the next country to use a nuke... I would have said North Korea. I don't even know who would have been third. If you ask me right now... I would say probably Donald Trump is most likely to use a nuke.”
“We will go from having been the dominant player to one of several players maybe, or we will basically have lost our influence in the region.”
“We have learned before that bombing alone wasn't going to do it and now we've had the most abject demonstration possible because it's been a free fly, pretty much.”
Host
Guest
Donald Trump
person
Iran
place
China
place
NATO
organization
Russia
place
Robert Kagan
person
South Korea
place
Israel
place
Tim Miller
person
Pete Hegseth
person
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