The global fallout from Trump's new world order

In this episode of The Big Story, host Karen Siolan speaks with Jack Cunningham, Professor of International Relations at the University of Toronto, about the dramatic fallout from President Donald Trump's escalating threats toward Iran and the subsequent two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Despite Trump's extreme rhetoric—threatening to 'wipe out the entire Iranian civilization'—the ceasefire has revealed a strategic defeat for the U.S., as Iran retains de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. Cunningham argues that Trump’s bluster was a calculated negotiating tactic designed to create a face-saving exit, but the resulting deal is fundamentally unworkable, with both sides claiming contradictory terms. Iran, having leveraged its control of the strait to generate massive revenue and geopolitical leverage, is now in a stronger position than before the conflict. Meanwhile, the U.S. military’s limitations—exposed by rapid depletion of air defenses and lack of allied cooperation—have undermined its global credibility. The episode also explores broader implications: Putin’s strengthened position in Ukraine due to soaring energy prices, the erosion of U.S. trustworthiness on the world stage, and the growing consensus that Trump’s leadership has turned the U.S. into a 'rogue actor.' As global powers adjust to this new reality, the episode underscores the fragility of American dominance and the long-term consequences of unchecked escalation. Key takeaways include: 1) Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz has become a permanent strategic asset, reshaping global energy dynamics; 2) Trump’s escalation-de-escalation cycle undermines U.S. credibility and emboldens adversaries; 3) American military power is not as standalone as assumed, especially without allied support; 4) Global actors must shift from diplomacy to institutional constraint to counter erratic leadership; 5) The U.S. is no longer seen as a reliable ally, forcing nations to recalibrate foreign policy; 6) Iran’s hardline regime is likely to become more aggressive in the near term; 7) Energy markets are already pricing in the risk of future strait closures; 8) The world must prepare for a multipolar order where U.S. dominance is no longer guaranteed.