Episode 2,704 - What Do the Data & Analytics Say About Which Offensive Players the Jets Should Draft? w/Jim Cobern
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The 2026 NFL Draft is shaping up to be a weak class at offensive skill positions, but a strong one on defense — a reality that could dramatically reshape the New York Jets' draft strategy. Jim Cobern of All Pro Football Data argues that while quarterback prospects are shallow, Fernando Mendoza stands out as the only quarterback with elite data metrics, including 90th percentile in expected value and red zone efficiency. Yet even he falls short of generational status. Cobern dismisses Ty Simpson as a first-round prospect, noting his third-down efficiency at just 61st percentile — a level historically associated with failed starters. On the ground, Jeremiah Love is the only running back with a 99th percentile production profile, but the rest of the class lacks elite talent. The wide receiver class is deep but not dominant, with Jordan Tyson and Makai Lemon offering strong data despite injury concerns or off-field questions. Tight ends are dominated by 'move' types like Sadiq, with few true 'full-size' threats. The offensive line, however, is where the Jets could find value — especially at center and guard, with Parker Brailsford and Emmanuel Pregnon standing out. Cobern’s core recommendation? Load up on defense early — targeting edge rushers like David Bailey and safeties like Dillon Theenam — then fill out the offensive line in rounds two and three.
Fernando Mendoza is the only quarterback in the 2026 class with 90th percentile data in expected value and red zone efficiency — but not a generational prospect.
Ty Simpson’s third-down efficiency (61st percentile) is historically low for future starters; he’s better suited for Day 3.
Jeremiah Love is the only running back with a 99th percentile production profile; the rest of the class lacks elite talent.
The wide receiver class is deep but not elite — Jordan Tyson and Makai Lemon lead in data, despite injury or interview concerns.
Parker Brailsford is the top center prospect (99th percentile) based on size, athleticism, and production data.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Intro: The Draft Reality Check
Scott Mason opens the episode with a high-energy recap of Jets highlights and introduces Jim Cobern, founder of All Pro Football Data, setting the stage for a data-driven analysis of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Quarterback Class: Mendoza Stands Alone
“Ty Simpson is not the second best quarterback in this draft class. He's the fourth best quarterback in this draft class where if he was in any other draft class, he would most likely be sort of a day three selection.”
Running Backs: One Elite, Many Solid
“Jeremiah Love, I think he's the only running back in this class that sort of has a 99 percentile overall production, uh, traits.”
Wide Receivers: Depth Over Elite
“I really don't see the hype with him as a top 10 player in this particular draft class other than maybe the weakness of it in terms of offensive positions especially skilled position players.”
Tight Ends: Move Types Dominate
Sadiq is the top tight end, but Cobern notes the class lacks full-size, elite producers. He highlights Max Clare and Sam Rouge as potential bargains, with most prospects being 'move' tight ends.
“Ty Simpson is not the second best quarterback in this draft class. He's the fourth best quarterback in this draft class where if he was in any other draft class, he would most likely be sort of a day three selection.”
“Brailsford. He is currently my top safe center. Excuse me, almost said safety, but top center based on his data here at 99 percentile overall.”
“Jeremiah Love, I think he's the only running back in this class that sort of has a 99 percentile overall production, uh, traits.”
Host
Guest
New York Jets
organization
Jim Cobern
person
Scott Mason
person
Fernando Mendoza
person
Ty Simpson
person
All Pro Football Data
organization
Parker Brailsford
person
Jeremiah Love
person
Makai Lemon
person
Jordan Tyson
person
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