Lyn Alden on Macro Consequences of AI and The Stolgard Incident (Monitoring The Situation Replay)

Lynn Alden, macro strategist and author of the sci-fi thriller *The Stolgard Incident*, delivers a stark warning about the macroeconomic consequences of AI—not just as a productivity booster, but as a force that could permanently reshape labor markets, wealth distribution, and monetary systems. She argues that AI's impact on white-collar work will be as transformative as manufacturing shifts in the 1980s, leading to structural disinflation in services but massive inflation in compute-intensive inputs like semiconductors, electricity, and RAM. While she remains bullish on AI-driven demand for hardware and infrastructure, she cautions that hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google will face lower returns on capital due to high CapEx and low switching costs—unlike the network-effect moats of the 2010s. Alden also explores how autonomous AI agents will likely favor stablecoins and Bitcoin as their preferred money, with stablecoins serving as working capital and Bitcoin as long-term, censorship-resistant savings. She predicts a growing K-shaped economy where stock markets thrive while consumer sentiment hits record lows, and warns that political backlash against AI could emerge by 2028, driven by widening inequality. Her novel, set in the 2070s, portrays a semi-dystopian future where AI integration leads to low labor force participation, escapism via VR, and a fragile social fabric—yet not a full collapse, just an extrapolation of today’s trends. Alden’s core investment thesis? A barbell approach: long Bitcoin, stablecoins, and AI infrastructure, while maintaining value exposure to traditional finance and Latin America.