From Soros to Old Farm: How to Identify the Market’s Top Thematic Risk-Takers | Kieran Cavanna | Old Farm Partners

Kieran Cavanna, founder of Old Farm Partners, reveals how top-tier thematic risk-takers are identified not by pedigree, but by intellectual curiosity, domain expertise, and the ability to see around corners. In a world where AI CapEx is the dominant theme, Cavanna’s firm avoids chasing the obvious—like NVIDIA—instead betting on asymmetric opportunities in power, nuclear, infrastructure, and defense tech. He emphasizes that the best managers aren’t always from elite firms; many are small, independent operators with personal skin in the game, often funded by friends and family. Cavanna’s due diligence hinges on pattern recognition over track record, and he values managers who can adapt—like a San Francisco software fund that pivoted to utilities during the energy boom. Despite the AI frenzy, he warns of dangerous excess and stresses the importance of downside protection through diversified, unleveraged, and often short-biased strategies. The real edge? Being willing to bet on the unproven, the overlooked, and the deeply specialized—where the real alpha hides. Cavanna’s approach is built on three pillars: 1) Prioritize risk managers who can survive downturns, not just win in bull markets; 2) Co-invest with small, passionate managers who have a chip on their shoulder and personal capital at stake; 3) Stay relentlessly thematic but avoid binary bets—focus on multi-layered, asymmetric plays across energy, infrastructure, and defense tech.