Ep. 1385: The Value Scam with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
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Michael Covel delivers a blistering critique of the 'buy and hold' investment philosophy, arguing that the concept of 'value' is a myth perpetuated by financial institutions and academia. He challenges listeners to confront the reality of recent market swings in major tech stocks like Nike, Oracle, and Microsoft—companies that soared on AI-driven narratives only to crash dramatically. Covel asserts that these price movements aren't anomalies but evidence of a systemic scam where the financial system manipulates perception through coordinated narratives, leaving average investors vulnerable. The real truth, he insists, lies not in fundamental analysis but in price action: the only reliable signal is the trend itself. Drawing from legendary traders like Richard Dennis and the Turtle Traders, he champions trend following as a disciplined, rule-based system that doesn't require predicting the future—just following the market’s momentum with strict entry, exit, and risk rules. In a world of misinformation and collapsing trust, Covel positions trend following not just as a profitable strategy, but as a form of personal sovereignty—offering control in an unpredictable world.
The concept of 'value' in investing is a myth—price action, not fundamentals, is the only reliable signal.
Nike, Oracle, and Microsoft’s recent crashes prove that 'buy and hold' fails when narratives collapse and markets reverse sharply.
Trend following removes the need to predict the future by focusing on rules-based entry, exit, and position sizing.
The financial system is designed to gaslight investors through coordinated narratives, especially during bubbles like the AI boom.
Discipline in following a trend-following system is more powerful than trying to time tops and bottoms or analyze company fundamentals.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The Collapse of the Value Myth
“I don't understand if you're into making money, if you're into investing. Where the fuck is the value? How does that work?”
The Systemic Scam of Financial Narratives
“How can you not come to that conclusion? Now again, we're just staying on these three particular companies... there's a point on the chart where there was value and then there was a point on the chart where it was overvalued.”
The Truth of Trend Following
“The price of right now is the only truth. Everything else is what we affectionately call either a lie or bullshit.”
Why the Average Investor Is Broken
He critiques the average investor’s blind trust in institutions and the system, comparing it to a child being tucked in at night—passive, naive, and vulnerable to catastrophic losses when the market turns.
The Power of Discipline Over Prediction
Covel concludes by emphasizing that trend following doesn’t require genius or deep analysis—just adherence to a simple, repeatable system. He invites listeners to embrace control through rules, not narratives.
“I don't understand if you're into making money, if you're into investing. Where the fuck is the value? How does that work?”
“The price of right now is the only truth. Everything else is what we affectionately call either a lie or bullshit.”
“Trend following will still take you to the promised land. Because you don't have to figure out the narrative. You don't have to know the economics.”
Host
Michael Covel
person
Nike
organization
Oracle
organization
Microsoft
organization
Turtle Trader
book
Richard Dennis
person
Warren Buffett
person
Daniel Kahneman
person
Thinking Fast and Slow
book
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Michael Covel's Trend Following • 19m • 4/27/2026
Ep. 1388: Ross Greene Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following • 56m • 5/4/2026
Ep. 1389: F*** Dark Times with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following • 19m • 5/11/2026
Ep. 1390: The Psychology of Persuasion with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following • 1h 39m • 5/18/2026
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