Ep. 1385: The Value Scam with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following14mApril 13, 2026

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AI-Generated Summary

Michael Covel delivers a blistering critique of the 'buy and hold' investment philosophy, arguing that the concept of 'value' is a myth perpetuated by financial institutions and academia. He challenges listeners to confront the reality of recent market swings in major tech stocks like Nike, Oracle, and Microsoft—companies that soared on AI-driven narratives only to crash dramatically. Covel asserts that these price movements aren't anomalies but evidence of a systemic scam where the financial system manipulates perception through coordinated narratives, leaving average investors vulnerable. The real truth, he insists, lies not in fundamental analysis but in price action: the only reliable signal is the trend itself. Drawing from legendary traders like Richard Dennis and the Turtle Traders, he champions trend following as a disciplined, rule-based system that doesn't require predicting the future—just following the market’s momentum with strict entry, exit, and risk rules. In a world of misinformation and collapsing trust, Covel positions trend following not just as a profitable strategy, but as a form of personal sovereignty—offering control in an unpredictable world.

Key Takeaways
1

The concept of 'value' in investing is a myth—price action, not fundamentals, is the only reliable signal.

2

Nike, Oracle, and Microsoft’s recent crashes prove that 'buy and hold' fails when narratives collapse and markets reverse sharply.

3

Trend following removes the need to predict the future by focusing on rules-based entry, exit, and position sizing.

4

The financial system is designed to gaslight investors through coordinated narratives, especially during bubbles like the AI boom.

5

Discipline in following a trend-following system is more powerful than trying to time tops and bottoms or analyze company fundamentals.

…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus

Chapters
0:00
2 min

The Collapse of the Value Myth

I don't understand if you're into making money, if you're into investing. Where the fuck is the value? How does that work?

Highlight
2:00
3 min

The Systemic Scam of Financial Narratives

How can you not come to that conclusion? Now again, we're just staying on these three particular companies... there's a point on the chart where there was value and then there was a point on the chart where it was overvalued.

Highlight
5:00
4 min

The Truth of Trend Following

The price of right now is the only truth. Everything else is what we affectionately call either a lie or bullshit.

Highlight
9:00
3 min

Why the Average Investor Is Broken

He critiques the average investor’s blind trust in institutions and the system, comparing it to a child being tucked in at night—passive, naive, and vulnerable to catastrophic losses when the market turns.

12:00
3 min

The Power of Discipline Over Prediction

Covel concludes by emphasizing that trend following doesn’t require genius or deep analysis—just adherence to a simple, repeatable system. He invites listeners to embrace control through rules, not narratives.

High-Impact Quotes
I don't understand if you're into making money, if you're into investing. Where the fuck is the value? How does that work?
Michael Covel0:29
Viral: 88.0
The price of right now is the only truth. Everything else is what we affectionately call either a lie or bullshit.
Michael Covel3:47
Viral: 85.0
Trend following will still take you to the promised land. Because you don't have to figure out the narrative. You don't have to know the economics.
Michael Covel8:30
Viral: 78.0
Speakers

Host

Michael Covel
Topics Discussed
trend following95%buy and hold90%value investing88%market bubbles85%price action83%financial system critique80%AI stock hype75%discipline in trading70%
People & Brands

Michael Covel

person

12xPositive

Nike

organization

6xNeutral

Oracle

organization

5xNeutral

Microsoft

organization

5xNeutral

Turtle Trader

book

4xPositive

Richard Dennis

person

4xPositive

Warren Buffett

person

2xPositive

Daniel Kahneman

person

1xNeutral

Thinking Fast and Slow

book

1xNeutral

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