When will oil markets recover?

This Marketplace episode explores the ongoing economic fallout from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz following military actions against Iran. With the war expected to last into mid-to-late April 2026, experts predict a prolonged recovery for global oil markets, citing physical damage to infrastructure, refinery outages, and the time required to rebuild production and inventories. Crude prices are expected to remain above $80 a barrel through 2026, with gas prices in the U.S. likely exceeding $3 per gallon through the summer and fall. Despite rising prices, U.S. oil producers in the Permian Basin are not significantly increasing drilling activity, due to long lead times, market discipline, and uncertainty about the duration of supply disruptions. The episode also revisits the economic impact of President Trump’s tariff regime, which, while less inflationary than predicted, has caused significant volatility and long-term risks to global trade relationships. Meanwhile, corporate investment in water conservation in the drought-stricken American West is emerging as a critical supplement to shrinking federal funding, driven by both business risk and brand reputation. Finally, the rise of restaurant groups that mimic independent concepts is reshaping the dining scene, offering consistency and cost efficiency at the expense of authenticity.