Episode 48: Why The Tech Rally Has Room To Run. With Jeff Hirsch
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The tech rally isn't a bubble—it's the next phase of a generational boom rooted in AI, quantum computing, and DeFi, according to Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Traders Almanac. Despite geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and widespread market anxiety, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to hit new highs, driven by real earnings, revenue growth, and structural shifts in how value is created. Hirsch argues that traditional valuation metrics like the CAPE PE are outdated in the age of AI-driven productivity, and that the market’s resilience reflects a deeper, data-backed technological supercycle. He introduces the 'Trump seasonal pattern'—a recurring Q1 market shakeup followed by sustained rallies—suggesting it may be overriding traditional seasonal trends like 'sell in May.' The episode challenges listeners to stop fighting the tape and instead use a five-discipline framework: seasonality, fundamentals, technicals, monetary policy, and sentiment. The key takeaway? When momentum is strong, take partial profits, reposition strategically, and trust the data—not fear.
The tech rally is driven by a real supercycle in AI, quantum, and DeFi—not speculation—backed by earnings and revenue growth.
Traditional valuation metrics like CAPE PE are outdated; AI-era tech companies require new frameworks for assessment.
The 'Trump seasonal pattern' shows a recurring Q1 market low followed by a sustained rally, potentially overriding traditional seasonal trends.
Use a five-discipline approach: seasonality, fundamentals, technicals, monetary policy, and sentiment—not one factor alone.
Don’t fight the tape; instead, take partial profits along the way and reposition strategically when momentum shows signs of fatigue.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The Tech Rally Isn’t a Bubble—It’s a Supercycle
“This is the boom that I projected back in 2010—the internet to the AI. We got quantum, we got DeFi. This is real.”
Why Traditional Valuation Metrics Are Broken
Hirsch dismantles the idea that high PEs signal a bubble, explaining that historical context shows today’s valuations are not unprecedented. He emphasizes that low rates and real earnings growth allow for higher multiples, especially in AI-driven sectors.
The Trump Seasonal Pattern: Q1 Shakeup, Year-Long Rally
“There’s this Q1 shakeup and then there’s this shock and awe for the rest of the year.”
The Five-Discipline Framework: Beyond Seasonality
Hirsch outlines his holistic approach: seasonality as the foundation, layered with fundamentals, technicals, monetary policy, and sentiment. He stresses that no single factor tells the full story—data, not fear, should drive decisions.
Market Resilience Amid Global Chaos
“The market is the collective understanding of all of the factors going into the economic situation.”
“So watch the tape, read the tape, but take some profits along the way and don't be greedy.”
“There’s this Q1 shakeup and then there’s this shock and awe for the rest of the year.”
“full blown. We're just going straight to the moon here, but we could get a little weakness or a little sideways action,”
Host
Guest
Jeff Hirsch
person
Stock Traders Almanac
other
Trump seasonal pattern
other
S&P 500
other
NASDAQ
other
MACD indicator
other
Russell rebalance
other
Micron
organization
Dow theory
other
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