Episode 34: The HALO Trade. With Tony Greer

The market is navigating a volatile geopolitical storm centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where President Trump's escalating threats have failed to move markets—oil spiked, but stocks and Treasuries held steady, signaling that traders are no longer reacting emotionally to political noise. Tony Greer, editor of The Navigator and founder of TGMacro, argues that the real story isn't the war itself, but the enduring 'HALO trade'—a strategic rotation into hard assets with low obsolescence, such as energy, uranium, rare earths, and gold. This regime shift, driven by resource nationalism and inflationary pressures, has redefined market leadership: sectors like oil, mining, and defense-related materials are outperforming tech, even as retail investors re-enter software at risky highs. Greer warns that while gold remains a core hedge, silver’s speculative surge may be a short-covering rally with no lasting momentum, and he urges investors to start with physical gold as insurance before taking riskier positions. The episode reveals a deeper structural shift: the era of tech dominance is fading, replaced by a resource-driven bull market where positioning, not prediction, is key.