2026 Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

Long Shots: VSiN's Golf Betting Podcast50mMarch 31, 2026

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AI-Generated Summary

In this episode of Long Shots: VSiN's Golf Betting Podcast, hosts Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin preview the 2026 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio Oaks, just one week before the Masters. They reflect on Gary Woodland’s emotional victory at the Houston Open, highlighting his resilience after brain surgery and PTSD, and celebrate their successful betting model that targeted bombers—though they note this week’s course demands a different strategy. TPC San Antonio, with its wind, longer rough, and challenging greens, favors ball strikers over pure bombers, requiring strong approach play, scrambling, and bunker management. With key withdrawals including Colin Morikawa and Nikolai Hoigard, odds have shifted dramatically, making players like Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg favorites despite their recent form. The hosts share their betting cards, emphasizing value plays like Michael Chorbornsen, Denny McCarthy, and Jordan Smith, while Kelly also backs Sepp Straka and Keith Mitchell. They stress the importance of shopping odds across books and monitoring weather, especially wind, which could shift advantage during the weekend. The episode closes with a reminder to enter the VSiN High Stakes Masters Challenge and a lighthearted banter about border trips for gambling.

Key Takeaways
1

TPC San Antonio favors ball strikers over pure bombers due to wind, longer rough, and bunker-heavy greens.

2

With major withdrawals, odds have shifted—shop around books for the best prices, especially on top players like Fleetwood and Aberg.

3

Ball speed is a more reliable predictor than driving distance due to course and weather variability.

4

Focus on approach shots, scrambling, and bogey avoidance—key stats for success this week.

5

Value plays include Denny McCarthy, Jordan Smith, and Sepp Straka, who have strong histories and recent form.

…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus

Chapters
0:00
2 min

Introduction & Houston Open Recap

Gary Woodland, the winner by five shots, eventually was five shots. It was one shot separating to start the Sunday final round. Then Nikolai made bogey on the first hole and you knew it was going to be swimming upstream for him.

Highlight
2:00
3 min

Valero Texas Open Course Breakdown

Wes Reynolds details TPC San Antonio Oaks: wind-prone, with longer rough, deep bunkers, and contoured greens. It’s less of a bomber’s course than Houston, favoring ball strikers and approach play.

5:00
5 min

Impact of Withdrawals & Odds Shifts

He's kind of the big one here for me because it was not necessarily, oh, I either already made it or definitely didn't make it in Pearson Cootie's case where he wasn't going to be able to make the match unless he won the tournament.

Highlight
10:00
5 min

Modeling Strategy & Key Stats

Wes explains his model: heavy on ball striking (total driving + GIR), scrambling, bunker play, and opportunities gained. He downplays proximity buckets due to noise and inconsistency.

15:00
5 min

Betting Cards & Value Plays

I'm going against Rio Hasatsune... I'm going against him though this is why I thought this was interesting with one of the other guys that you have on your outright card, West.

Highlight
High-Impact Quotes
Gary Woodland, the winner by five shots, eventually was five shots. It was one shot separating to start the Sunday final round. Then Nikolai made bogey on the first hole and you knew it was going to be swimming upstream for him.
Wes Reynolds2:21
Viral: 85.0
I'm going against Rio Hasatsune... I'm going against him though this is why I thought this was interesting with one of the other guys that you have on your outright card, West.
Kelly Bidlin46:43
Viral: 82.0
I'm going against Rio Hasatsune... I'm going against him though this is why I thought this was interesting with one of the other guys that you have on your outright card, West.
Kelly Bidlin46:43
Viral: 82.0
Speakers

Hosts

Matt BrownWes ReynoldsKelly Bidlin
Topics Discussed
golf betting strategy95%valero texas open90%ball striking vs distance88%player withdrawals and odds87%weather impact on golf85%modeling and data analysis83%one-and-done betting pools80%mental health in professional golf75%
People & Brands

wes reynolds

person

18xPositive

kelly bidlin

person

16xPositive

matt brown

person

15xPositive

gary woodland

person

12xNeutral

tpc san antonio

place

10xNeutral

tommy fleetwood

person

8xPositive

vsiN

organization

8xPositive

ludvig aberg

person

7xPositive

colin morikawa

person

6xNegative

sepp straka

person

6xPositive

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