2026 Valero Texas Open Betting Preview
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In this episode of Long Shots: VSiN's Golf Betting Podcast, hosts Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin preview the 2026 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio Oaks, just one week before the Masters. They reflect on Gary Woodland’s emotional victory at the Houston Open, highlighting his resilience after brain surgery and PTSD, and celebrate their successful betting model that targeted bombers—though they note this week’s course demands a different strategy. TPC San Antonio, with its wind, longer rough, and challenging greens, favors ball strikers over pure bombers, requiring strong approach play, scrambling, and bunker management. With key withdrawals including Colin Morikawa and Nikolai Hoigard, odds have shifted dramatically, making players like Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg favorites despite their recent form. The hosts share their betting cards, emphasizing value plays like Michael Chorbornsen, Denny McCarthy, and Jordan Smith, while Kelly also backs Sepp Straka and Keith Mitchell. They stress the importance of shopping odds across books and monitoring weather, especially wind, which could shift advantage during the weekend. The episode closes with a reminder to enter the VSiN High Stakes Masters Challenge and a lighthearted banter about border trips for gambling.
TPC San Antonio favors ball strikers over pure bombers due to wind, longer rough, and bunker-heavy greens.
With major withdrawals, odds have shifted—shop around books for the best prices, especially on top players like Fleetwood and Aberg.
Ball speed is a more reliable predictor than driving distance due to course and weather variability.
Focus on approach shots, scrambling, and bogey avoidance—key stats for success this week.
Value plays include Denny McCarthy, Jordan Smith, and Sepp Straka, who have strong histories and recent form.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Introduction & Houston Open Recap
“Gary Woodland, the winner by five shots, eventually was five shots. It was one shot separating to start the Sunday final round. Then Nikolai made bogey on the first hole and you knew it was going to be swimming upstream for him.”
Valero Texas Open Course Breakdown
Wes Reynolds details TPC San Antonio Oaks: wind-prone, with longer rough, deep bunkers, and contoured greens. It’s less of a bomber’s course than Houston, favoring ball strikers and approach play.
Impact of Withdrawals & Odds Shifts
“He's kind of the big one here for me because it was not necessarily, oh, I either already made it or definitely didn't make it in Pearson Cootie's case where he wasn't going to be able to make the match unless he won the tournament.”
Modeling Strategy & Key Stats
Wes explains his model: heavy on ball striking (total driving + GIR), scrambling, bunker play, and opportunities gained. He downplays proximity buckets due to noise and inconsistency.
Betting Cards & Value Plays
“I'm going against Rio Hasatsune... I'm going against him though this is why I thought this was interesting with one of the other guys that you have on your outright card, West.”
“Gary Woodland, the winner by five shots, eventually was five shots. It was one shot separating to start the Sunday final round. Then Nikolai made bogey on the first hole and you knew it was going to be swimming upstream for him.”
“I'm going against Rio Hasatsune... I'm going against him though this is why I thought this was interesting with one of the other guys that you have on your outright card, West.”
“I'm going against Rio Hasatsune... I'm going against him though this is why I thought this was interesting with one of the other guys that you have on your outright card, West.”
Hosts
wes reynolds
person
kelly bidlin
person
matt brown
person
gary woodland
person
tpc san antonio
place
tommy fleetwood
person
vsiN
organization
ludvig aberg
person
colin morikawa
person
sepp straka
person
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