2026 RBC Heritage Betting Preview

In this episode of Long Shots: VSiN's Golf Betting Podcast, hosts Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin break down the 2026 RBC Heritage betting preview following Rory McIlroy's back-to-back Masters victory. They reflect on the Masters, highlighting Rory’s resilience despite poor driving accuracy and the near-misses by Cameron Young and Justin Rose. With Rory resting, Scotty Scheffler is the favorite at around 4-1, but the hosts debate whether his game suits the short, tight, Pete Dye-designed Harbortown course, where driver usage is minimal and approach play and around-the-green skills dominate. The discussion emphasizes ball striking, proximity to the hole, and scrambling as key stats, with models downplaying driving distance and putting. Kelly and Wes share their betting cards, with Kelly favoring Xander Schauffele at 15-1 and a speculative play on Colin Morikawa at 28-1 despite injury concerns. Wes highlights Jordan Spieth at 33-1 and Brian Harmon at 101-1 as long-shot value plays. The hosts stress that past Masters performance doesn’t predict RBC Heritage success and advise against overreacting to missed cuts or poor finishes. They also caution against betting on players like Tommy Fleetwood due to quirky fashion choices, adding humor to the analysis. Overall, the episode blends statistical insight with betting strategy and lighthearted banter. Key takeaways include: (1) Prioritize approach play and around-the-green performance over driving distance at Harbortown; (2) Avoid overreacting to Masters results—players like Morikawa and Young may be undervalued; (3) Consider speculative long shots like Morikawa and Brian Harmon based on course fit and model rankings; (4) Use models that emphasize proximity, greens in regulation, and scrambling; (5) Don’t ignore players with strong recent form even if they lack past success at the course; (6) Be cautious with players who have injury concerns but high model scores; (7) Watch for player demeanor and motivation, especially for players like Spieth needing to qualify for the U.S. Open; (8) Avoid betting on players whose public image or behavior (e.g., Tommy Fleetwood’s pants) may affect performance or perception.