TRENDS: DRAFTING Jeremiyah Love Could Help Jacory Croskey-Merritt Avoid Year Two Regression

This episode of Locked On Commanders explores the statistical trend that most NFL running backs who outperform expectations in their rookie season experience a decline in efficiency during their second year, often dropping from a 4.6 yards per carry average to the 4.2–4.5 range. The focus is on Ja'Cory Krosky-Merritt, a seventh-round rookie who posted an impressive 4.6 yards per carry in 2025, raising concerns about a potential regression in 2026 due to increased workload and defensive adjustments. Host David Harrison examines data from recent drafts (2022–2025), highlighting how even elite college performers like Devon HN and Bucky Irving saw significant drops in production, with many struggling to maintain college-level efficiency in the NFL. The episode then proposes a solution: drafting Jeremiah Love in the top 10 to create a two-headed backfield with Krosky-Merritt. Love’s elite yards after contact (65% of production) and ability to thrive in contact could help offset the expected decline, especially if the Commanders’ offensive line remains strong. By sharing carries and responsibilities, the team may avoid forcing Krosky-Merritt into a high-volume role that historically leads to regression. The episode concludes that Washington may be uniquely positioned to break this trend due to their solid offensive line and new scheme under David Blau. Key takeaways include: 1) Rookie running backs who exceed expectations often regress in year two due to increased defensive attention and workload; 2) The Washington Commanders’ offensive line and scheme could help mitigate this regression; 3) Drafting Jeremiah Love as a complementary back could reduce pressure on Krosky-Merritt and help maintain overall efficiency; 4) Even if Love experiences a typical college-to-NFL dip, his production could still be elite; 5) A balanced, multi-back approach may be the best way to avoid the 'year two curse.'