A veteran diplomat breaks down the Iran war

Veteran diplomat Aaron David Miller offers a sobering analysis of the escalating U.S.-Iran war, tracing its origins to President Trump's decision to launch a war of choice without a coherent strategy. Miller critiques the administration's approach, highlighting the absence of diplomatic preparation, the lack of shared urgency between the U.S. and Iran, and the failure to account for Iran's geographic leverage—particularly its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. He condemns the use of social media as a foreign policy tool, noting how Trump's public threats and contradictory statements have undermined credibility, destabilized alliances, and eroded the possibility of meaningful negotiation. Miller argues that the U.S. has overestimated its ability to reshape the Middle East, emphasizing the need for humility, historical awareness, and professional diplomacy. He warns that the war has already had unintended consequences, including a potential acceleration of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and a deepening of regional instability, while the proposed naval blockade is unlikely to force capitulation and may instead escalate conflict. Despite the bleak outlook, Miller sees a glimmer of hope in the democratic defeat of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, signaling that democratic norms still hold relevance.