Allbirds' brazen move, Saudi’s abandoning LIV golf and Bryce’s investing strategy explained
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This episode of Equity Mates Investing Podcast dives into two wildly contrasting stories: Allbirds' dramatic pivot from sustainable footwear to AI infrastructure under the new name NewBird AI, and Saudi Arabia's apparent retreat from its high-profile LIV Golf league. The hosts, Bryce and Ren, dissect the absurdity of Allbirds' 548% stock surge after selling all its assets and rebranding with no existing infrastructure, drawing parallels to historical market bubbles like Long Island Ice Tea's rebranding to Long Blockchain. They contrast this with LIV Golf's financial struggles—burning $130 million monthly despite strong in-person attendance in certain markets—highlighting the disconnect between live viewership and TV audiences, and the growing discontent among top golfers like Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau. The episode then shifts to Bryce’s personal investing framework, where he outlines a structured three-part process for his satellite portfolio: evaluating companies on product quality, profitability moats, and capital allocation; classifying stocks by type (compounder, turnaround, etc.) to inform position sizing; and implementing a seven-day cooling-off period before investing. He emphasizes the importance of written theses, transparency with his wife Harriet, and using discounted cash flow models as tools—not gospel—while acknowledging the limits of forecasting in a world of surprises. The hosts conclude with a call for listener engagement on publishing these investment notes publicly.
Allbirds' rebrand to NewBird AI and 548% stock surge highlights market irrationality and the danger of speculative bubbles.
LIV Golf is facing existential threats due to Saudi Arabia's strategic pivot from global 'sports washing' to domestic investment focus.
Bryce is building a formal investment framework with a four-step checklist, cooling-off period, and written theses to improve decision-making.
Position sizing should reflect conviction and risk profile, not just growth potential.
DCF models are useful tools but should be used with humility—market surprises often defy forecasts.
Introduction & Sponsorship
The episode opens with standard disclaimers and two sponsor segments: Vanta for compliance automation and Viola Private Wealth for portfolio management services.
Allbirds' Absurd Rebrand to NewBird AI
“It reminds me of Long Island Ice Tea Corporation. They rebranded to Long Blockchain Corporation. Stock jumped 380% on the announcement.”
LIV Golf's Financial Crisis and Saudi Retreat
“If the Saudis do that, there's just zero support here from a broadcasting rights point of view for it to continue.”
Bryce's Investment Framework: From Chaos to Structure
“I'm going to wait seven days and in that seven days, I'm going to complete the written thesis.”
Reflections, Challenges & Future Plans
The hosts reflect on the emotional and practical challenges of implementing a disciplined process, including the role of personal accountability (Harriet and Ham), the limitations of DCF models, and the need to review active managers and thematic ETFs.
“You might, you would have had like some growth rate, but... Which is why I think the first three parts of the process... are more important than the outcome of the DCF.”
“It reminds me of Long Island Ice Tea Corporation. They rebranded to Long Blockchain Corporation. Stock jumped 380% on the announcement.”
“You listen to the analysts and fund managers and there's this false sense of certainty.”
Hosts
Bryce
person
Ren
person
Allbirds
organization
LIV Golf
other
Alphabet
organization
NewBird AI
organization
Saudi Public Investment Fund
organization
organization
Harriet
person
NeoCloud
organization
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