Is the Middle East Heading Toward a Much Bigger War?

In this gripping episode of Deep Dish on Global Affairs, host Leslie Vinjamori and guest Fawaz Xurges, a leading historian of Middle East politics, confront the escalating regional war following Israel's expansion into Lebanon and the broader conflict involving Iran, Yemen, and the Gulf. Xurges warns that the current moment is the most dangerous in world history since 1945, driven by U.S. President Trump's erratic, instinct-driven foreign policy and the erosion of American institutional leadership. He argues that the war has backfired spectacularly: instead of toppling Iran’s regime, it has strengthened it, unified the Iranian people around their government, and empowered Iran to assert control over critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab. Israel’s strategy of creating security zones through mass displacement and destruction in southern Lebanon is condemned as a recipe for long-term instability, echoing the historical mistake of the 1982 invasion that birthed Hezbollah. With no credible global leadership—Europe absent, China focused on domestic goals, and Russia preoccupied—Xurges paints a bleak picture of a world on an irreversible escalation ladder, where nuclear or infrastructure attacks could trigger a global economic collapse. Yet he ends on a note of cautious hope, emphasizing that the future of the Middle East and the United States will ultimately be shaped not by autocrats, but by young people across the region and in America who continue to dream of democracy, justice, and equal security.