Is China Quietly Winning the Iran War?

In this episode of Deep Dish on Global Affairs, host Leslie Vinjamori interviews James Crabtree, a distinguished fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to explore how the ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is reshaping global geopolitics—particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Crabtree argues that while China is often portrayed as aggressively expanding its influence in the Middle East, its actual role remains more strategic and restrained, focused not on regional dominance but on how the war affects its core relationship with the United States. He emphasizes that China views the Middle East conflict through the lens of U.S.-China dynamics, particularly regarding Taiwan, energy security, and the upcoming summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. The war, he suggests, has distracted the U.S. from its strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific, weakening its long-term posture against China. Meanwhile, India finds itself caught between deepening ties with the U.S. and Israel and its traditional energy dependencies on Iran, while also grappling with a rising diplomatic role for Pakistan. The episode concludes with a cautionary note: the war may not be transformative, but it has diverted attention from the most critical geopolitical fault line—the U.S.-China rivalry in the First Island Chain.