Iran Conflict Brief: The War's Lasting Impact on Gulf States

This episode of the Columbia Energy Exchange's 'Iran Conflict Brief' examines the escalating war between Iran and a U.S.-led coalition, now in its 33rd day, and its profound implications for Gulf states and global energy markets. Host Daniel Sternhoff interviews Robin Mills, a Dubai-based energy expert and CEO of Kumar Energy, who provides on-the-ground insights from the UAE amid relentless drone and missile attacks. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with only a few ships navigating under informal deals with Iran—often paying substantial tolls—while physical oil markets tighten, driving up prices and triggering rationing in Asia and Europe. Mills argues that the war has shifted to a strategic phase where Iran leverages its ability to disrupt global energy flows as a form of deterrence, aiming to secure long-term strategic leverage rather than immediate military victory. He warns that a U.S. declaration of victory without a durable solution would leave Gulf states vulnerable, as Iran’s control over the strait could become normalized, undermining international norms and U.S. sanctions. The episode also explores the fragility of regional security, with GCC states facing systemic vulnerabilities in energy, water, and industrial infrastructure, and questions whether the U.S. has adequately prepared its allies for the fallout of its military campaign. Despite some optimism about a three-to-four-month recovery timeline for oil and gas flows, the long-term damage to Qatar’s LNG facilities and broader diversification ambitions casts doubt on a swift return to 'normal.' Mills concludes that the most optimistic outcome—regime change in Tehran—is unlikely, and the region may settle into a new, unstable 'normal' where the threat of disruption lingers indefinitely.