Multifamily Market Outlook 2026: Trends, Opportunities & Risks with Chief Economist Carl Whitaker

In this episode of America's Commercial Real Estate Show, host Michael Bull sits down with Carl Whitaker, Chief Economist at RealPage, to analyze the multifamily market outlook for 2026. Whitaker provides a nuanced view of a market in transition, marked by a recent stabilization after a period of supply glut, softening rent growth, and uneven performance across property classes. Despite a challenging second half of 2025, first-quarter 2026 data shows signs of recovery, with 40 basis points of rent growth and occupancy holding steady at 94.5% nationally. The market remains highly segmented: Class A properties continue to outperform due to strong demand and resilience, while Class C and some Class B assets face headwinds from inflation, labor market pressures, and declining migration. Whitaker highlights Atlanta, the Carolinas, and parts of the Sunbelt as opportunistic markets for acquisition, while cautioning against smaller Florida metros lacking strong economic engines. He also discusses the growing role of AI in real estate operations, forecasting long-term productivity gains despite short-term job market disruptions. On capital markets, the market remains barbell-shaped—strong demand for top-tier assets and rising distress in lower-tier properties—while mid-tier assets remain stagnant due to stable valuations and reluctance to sell. Whitaker concludes with a cautious but optimistic outlook, urging investors to stay agile amid uncertainty, particularly around interest rates and macroeconomic volatility. Key takeaways include: (1) Class A multifamily assets remain the most resilient segment, especially in high-demand Sunbelt markets; (2) Atlanta and the Carolinas present compelling near-term acquisition opportunities due to normalized supply and strong labor markets; (3) AI is increasingly integrated into daily operations, driving efficiency and productivity; (4) the multifamily market is highly segmented—avoid one-size-fits-all assumptions; (5) interest rate stability is supporting deal flow, but uncertainty remains high; (6) distressed opportunities exist in Class B/C assets, particularly in markets like Atlanta and Houston; (7) long-term demand fundamentals remain strong, especially in growing urban centers; (8) investors should focus on operational efficiency and avoid over-leveraging in uncertain times.