338 - May Contain Lies - Alex Edmans (rebroadcast)

The human brain is not a truth machine but a prediction engine, constantly filling in gaps, making assumptions, and constructing reality from incomplete data—a process known as inference. This leads to a dangerous cognitive shortcut called the 'makes sense stopping rule,' where we halt our search for evidence once a conclusion feels plausible, even if it's false. In his book *May Contain Lies*, economist Alex Edmans introduces the 'Ladder of Misinference' to expose how we misinterpret information at every level: from statements to facts, facts to data, data to evidence, and evidence to proof. He argues that confirmation bias—favoring information that confirms our desires—and black-and-white thinking, which ignores nuance, are not just flaws but deeply wired survival mechanisms that now mislead us in an age of information overload. The real danger isn't ignorance, but the false confidence we gain from believing we understand something when we’ve only accepted a story that feels right. The solution? A disciplined habit of questioning not just what we’re told, but where on the ladder of misinference we’ve landed.