Shipping companies still reluctant to pass through Strait of Hormuz.

The BBC's World Business Report examines the fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran and its profound impact on global shipping, energy markets, and supply chains. Despite initial market relief—marked by a sharp drop in oil prices and a rally in equities—tensions remain high as Iran has repeatedly blocked ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Shipping companies, including Hapag Lloyd, remain hesitant to resume operations due to unresolved safety, insurance, and cost concerns. With around 1,000 ships stuck in the region and insurance premiums skyrocketing—now costing more in a week than a year under normal conditions—industry leaders warn recovery could take weeks or even months. The disruption extends beyond shipping, affecting global refining capacity, particularly in Qatar, where key LNG and jet fuel production facilities have been damaged. Experts estimate it could take three to five years to restore full operations, with ripple effects on global energy prices, airline ticket costs, and consumer goods. Even with a ceasefire, the road to normalcy remains uncertain and costly. The episode underscores the fragility of global trade in times of geopolitical conflict. Analysts emphasize that while markets reacted positively to the truce, the physical and logistical challenges of reopening critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz are immense. Insurance, crew safety, and political trust remain major hurdles. Refineries in the Gulf are not only damaged but also face long lead times for replacement parts, with some equipment taking years to manufacture. The fallout is already being felt in aviation, where jet fuel prices are expected to remain elevated for months, leading to higher ticket prices and potential flight cancellations. Ultimately, the episode paints a picture of a global economy still reeling from a conflict that has disrupted supply chains, inflated costs, and exposed deep vulnerabilities in energy infrastructure and maritime logistics.