Bitcoin’s Bull Market Is Back | Checkmate
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Bitcoin is entering a bull market after a brutal bear cycle, with the 60K bottom marking a psychological and technical turning point. The hosts argue that the market has undergone a 'price pain capitulation'—a moment when price-sensitive investors finally gave up—creating the foundation for a sustained rally. Key indicators like a weekly RSI of 26, historically low on-chain selling pressure, and a mean reversion model all point to a high probability (80%) that the bull market has begun. The journey upward will be nonlinear, with 78K, 85K, and 95K serving as critical psychological and technical thresholds where momentum shifts. Meanwhile, Australia’s proposed capital gains tax overhaul—removing the 50% discount and replacing it with a flawed indexation system—has sparked outrage, with the hosts calling it a 'scam' that effectively doubles taxes on asset growth, especially for young people and high-growth investors like Bitcoiners. They frame this as a 'trial balloon' for global fiscal policy, warning that such measures will accelerate capital flight and erode trust in fiat systems, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a non-debasable store of value in an era of monetary instability.
Bitcoin's bull market likely began at the 60K bottom, marked by a 'price pain capitulation' where price-sensitive investors exited en masse.
The 78K, 85K, and 95K price levels are critical technical and psychological thresholds that must be broken to confirm the bull market.
An 80% probability that the bull market is underway is supported by extreme technical indicators like a weekly RSI of 26 and historically low on-chain selling pressure.
Australia's proposed capital gains tax overhaul removes the 50% discount and replaces it with a flawed indexation system, effectively doubling taxes on asset growth.
The new tax system disproportionately harms young savers and high-growth investors, making it harder to afford homes and education.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The Bull Market Begins at the Bottom
“The worst day of the bear is the start of the bull. I'm not this believer that you have to get past all-time highs to go into a bull market.”
Technical and On-Chain Signals of a Bull Market
“The weekly RSI got to 26, which is the lowest level it's been ever. Every time it's been below 30, it's been the bottom.”
The 78K, 85K, 95K Thresholds: A Bull Market's Milestones
“First line of defense, 78. Second line, 85. Third line, 95. As you get through those levels, there's technical models there that the dude with the Bloomberg terminal will see.”
Australia's Capital Gains Tax Overhaul: A Scam for Savers
“They've more or less, for people who are on full indexation, which is young people, they've doubled the tax. So in order to get on the first rung of the housing ladder, you need to climb the principal ladder, right?”
The Real Cost of the Tax Change: 20-30% Currency Devaluation
The hosts frame the proposed tax change as a 20-30% currency devaluation disguised as fiscal reform, with devastating effects on long-term savers and young people trying to buy homes.
“You must climb the asset ladder to become the first rung in the housing market. They've just doubled the tax on that. No way this helps young people kick it back.”
“They've more or less, for people who are on full indexation, which is young people, they've doubled the tax. So in order to get on the first rung of the housing ladder, you need to climb the principal ladder, right?”
“First line of defense, 78. Second line, 85. Third line, 95. As you get through those levels, there's technical models there that the dude with the Bloomberg terminal will see.”
Host
australia
place
jack
person
michael saylor
person
labor government
organization
coinbase
organization
albo
person
one nation
other
anchorwatch
product
bitkey
product
brent johnson
person
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