Fertiliser fears
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This episode of Wake Up To Money explores the cascading economic impacts of the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, particularly focusing on disruptions to global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this vital route has led to skyrocketing fertilizer prices—doubling since early 2024—causing farmers to delay purchases, which threatens future food production and could drive up food prices. Ahmed El-Hosy, CEO of Fertiglobe, one of the world’s largest nitrogen fertilizer exporters, explains how supply chains are being rerouted via land and rail, adding significant time and cost. Meanwhile, a farmer from North Wales, Clea Jones, confirms that fertilizer and fuel costs are already being passed on to consumers through mechanisms like cost-of-production contracts, with food inflation expected to rise in the coming months. The episode also examines broader economic ripple effects, including rising freight costs, consumer caution, and the Bank of England’s struggle to anchor inflation expectations. In a lighter segment, the show turns to the booming ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktail market, discussing how brands like Moth Drinks are redefining convenience and quality, with Diageo now stepping up its efforts to capture this growing trend despite earlier hesitation. The episode closes with a reminder of the UK’s upcoming general election and the need for media neutrality on polling day.
Fertilizer prices have doubled due to geopolitical tensions, leading farmers to delay purchases and threatening future food production.
Supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are forcing rerouting via land, increasing costs and delivery times significantly.
Food inflation is expected to rise in the UK and globally, with supermarkets likely to pass on higher input costs to consumers via cost-of-production contracts.
The RTD cocktail market is booming, driven by demand for premium quality and convenience, with brands like Moth Drinks leading the charge.
Companies like Diageo are now investing in RTD products after initially lagging behind independent brands, recognizing the shift in consumer behavior.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Fertilizer Crisis and Geopolitical Shock
“If the farmer can't make the math work on these much higher priced inputs you could have less production and higher prices in the future so a delayed effect.”
Shipping Disruptions and Supply Chain Workarounds
Peter Sand, shipping analyst, discusses the ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the failure of temporary ceasefires, and how container shipping is adapting through land routes and increased rail use, despite long-term inefficiencies.
Business Impact and Cost Pass-Through
Matt Hiscott and Lindsay James discuss how rising oil and fuel costs are affecting businesses like Wild Nutrition, with companies absorbing costs temporarily but facing pressure to pass them on as inflation persists.
Farmer Voices and Consumer Reality
“We can't just keep paying so much for our fertiliser and not get enough back from the supermarkets.”
The RTD Cocktail Boom and Diageo's Pivot
“We took the risk and said, look, we're going to make it as good as we can and we'll work out the cost second.”
“We took the risk and said, look, we're going to make it as good as we can and we'll work out the cost second.”
“If the farmer can't make the math work on these much higher priced inputs you could have less production and higher prices in the future so a delayed effect.”
“They're 100% profiteering. Like I was mentioning about the red diesel, in the pump we've not seen normal diesel double in price but red diesel has doubled in price so it doesn't... That makes zero sense.”
Host
Guests
Fertiglobe
organization
Strait of Hormuz
other
Ahmed El-Hosy
person
US-Israel-Iran conflict
other
Lindsay James
person
Matt Hiscott
person
Diageo
organization
Clea Jones
person
Wild Nutrition
organization
Moth Drinks
organization
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