Total Bases | MLB Picks Today: Monday Betting Preview, Odds & Best Bets | 4/20
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In this episode of WagerTalk's Total Bases, hosts Tokyo Brandon, Brian Leonard, and TB break down MLB betting lines for Monday, April 20, 2026, with a focus on key matchups including Tigers vs. Red Sox, Braves vs. Nationals, Reds vs. Rays, and Royals vs. Orioles. The discussion centers on team form, bullpen strength, travel fatigue, and market inefficiencies. The hosts express skepticism about the inflated odds on the Red Sox despite their recent struggles, advocate for the under in low-scoring games, and highlight Washington Nationals’ strong first-half performance against right-handed pitching. They also debate the value of the Reds, citing their overperformance and luck, and caution against overvaluing teams with bullpen games. A major focus is on the strategic use of opener pitchers and the importance of tracking bullpen depth. The episode concludes with a three-team parlay pick: Braves moneyline (-155), Rockies first five innings over 2.5 (+130), and Orioles moneyline (-115), with hosts emphasizing long-term betting discipline and the value of premium picks.
The Red Sox are overvalued at current odds despite poor recent performance and low-scoring series; consider the under or Tigers at better value.
Washington Nationals have strong splits against right-handers and are consistently undervalued; the first five innings over 1.5 team total is a high-confidence play.
The Reds are overperforming due to luck (14 actual wins vs. 9.7 expected); fade them in the coming weeks as regression looms.
Bullpen game strategy is common in MLB; always check for the actual starter (e.g., Jesse Schultz for Rays), not just the listed opener.
Baltimore’s bullpen is fresh and dominant; pair with Bradish’s potential breakout for a high-upside Orioles play.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Opening: Red Sox vs. Tigers & Market Inflation
“They're eight and 13. They haven't been good all year. Lethargic offense doesn't show up. You know, it's just, they don't justify the price tag here.”
Braves vs. Nationals: Travel, Bullpen, and Value
“Washington's very overlooked, but they do hit well. You guys made good points. They do hit well. I totally agree with you.”
Reds vs. Rays: Luck, Openers, and Bullpen Games
“Their win percentage is 63.6. It should be 44.3. That's... a full game over the Cardinals or the Diamondbacks and the luck factor.”
Orioles vs. Royals: Bradish, Lugo, and Bullpen Depth
The hosts evaluate the Orioles-Royals game, focusing on Kyle Bradish’s command issues post-Tommy John, Seth Lugo’s strong but unsustainable form, and the Orioles’ rested bullpen. They discuss the strategic advantage of betting on a team with fresh arms and a struggling starter.
Rockies vs. Dodgers: First Half Over & Ballpark Edge
“The Colorado Rockies hit very well at the beginning of games, even when they're on the road. Robleski has been pitching really well though, but I don't think that's going to keep them from scoring two runs.”
“Their win percentage is 63.6. It should be 44.3. That's... a full game over the Cardinals or the Diamondbacks and the luck factor.”
“Washington's very overlooked, but they do hit well. You guys made good points. They do hit well. I totally agree with you.”
“They're eight and 13. They haven't been good all year. Lethargic offense doesn't show up. You know, it's just, they don't justify the price tag here.”
Hosts
Tokyo Brandon
person
Brian Leonard
person
TB
person
Braves
other
Nationals
other
Red Sox
other
Orioles
other
Reds
other
Tigers
other
Rays
other
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