Total Bases | MLB Betting Picks Today! Wednesday Odds, Props & Best Bets | 4/22
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In this episode of WagerTalk's Total Bases, hosts Brian Leonard, Tokyo Brandon (TB), and Adam discuss MLB betting picks for Wednesday, April 22, 2026, focusing on key matchups, pitching matchups, and prop bets. The team recaps a successful parlay from the previous night involving the Padres and evaluates their current record, still slightly negative but on a winning streak. They analyze the Yankees vs. Red Sox game, with mixed opinions on whether to back the Yankees despite Boston’s poor offensive performance. The Mets vs. Twins game draws strong discussion, particularly around rookie lefty Connor Prelip, who is seen as a potential value play due to his strong AAA performance and the Mets’ struggles against left-handed pitching. The Orioles vs. Royals game is deemed a low-scoring affair with weak bullpens on both sides, leading to cautious betting. A major theme is the evolving handicapping approach in early April, where bookmaker pricing is still adjusting to real-world performance. The hosts also highlight under-the-radar props, such as Didier Fuentes’ over strikeouts and outs, and discuss the impact of the World Baseball Classic on team performance. The episode concludes with a three-leg parlay: Mets team total under 4.5 (-140), Braves money line (-145), and Mariners money line (-185). Brian Leonard is traveling and will miss Friday’s show, but the team promises to return with more picks.
Monitor early-season bookmaker pricing shifts—April is prime time to exploit mispriced lines as teams’ true form emerges.
Rookie lefties like Connor Prelip, especially those with strong AAA numbers, can be high-value bets against struggling offenses.
The Mets’ offensive confusion against left-handed pitching makes them vulnerable; consider team total under bets.
Avoid betting on teams with weak bullpens in low-scoring games—both Orioles and Royals bullpens are overused and unreliable.
Look for props on young pitchers like Didier Fuentes, who may be undervalued due to past struggles despite strong minor league performance.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Opening Recap & Parlay Update
Hosts kick off with a recap of yesterday’s successful parlay on the Padres and update their season record, still slightly negative but showing momentum. They express confidence in finding three winners today.
Yankees vs. Red Sox: Pitching & Hitting Struggles
Discussion centers on the Yankees-Red Sox matchup, with Brian and TB analyzing the poor offensive performance of the Red Sox and the strong pitching of Freed. TB expresses hesitation to flip from Red Sox to Yankees due to emotional bias.
Mets vs. Twins: Rookie Lefty Connor Prelip
“He's looked so good in the minors. I feel like he's going to deal. I couldn't bet against the Braves today.”
Orioles vs. Royals: Bullpen Weakness & Wind Effects
The Orioles-Royals game is analyzed for its weak bullpens and favorable wind conditions at Kauffman Stadium. The hosts are cautious, leaning toward the over but not confident enough to bet heavily.
Handicapping Evolution: Early Season Adjustments
“This time of the season, to me, is the best time to see if the books are adjusting or not. And they're not on certain pitchers.”
“This time of the season, to me, is the best time to see if the books are adjusting or not. And they're not on certain pitchers.”
“He's looked so good in the minors. I feel like he's going to deal. I couldn't bet against the Braves today.”
“The only thing he has not accomplished in his decorated career is the Cy Young Award.”
Hosts
Tokyo Brandon
person
Brian Leonard
person
Mets
other
Didier Fuentes
person
Twins
other
Red Sox
other
Yankees
other
Connor Prelip
person
Orioles
other
WagerTalk
media
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