Total Bases | LIVE MLB Betting Picks Today | Wednesday Odds, Props & Best Bets | 4/1
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In this episode of WagerTalk's Total Bases, hosts Charissa, Brian Leonard, and Tokyo Brandon break down the Wednesday MLB betting slate, focusing on key matchups and prop opportunities. The discussion centers on the Dodgers vs. Guardians game at Chavez Ravine, where the Dodgers are heavy favorites despite the loss of Cleveland's Chase DeLauter. The panel debates the value of laying the minus 1.5, with Brian and TB favoring the Dodgers but cautioning against the high juice, while TB suggests alternative bets like Yamamoto to win or over 17.5 outs. Other games analyzed include Pirates vs. Reds, where Skeens' shaky debut is downplayed as a fluke, and Blue Jays vs. Rockies, with concerns over Toronto's pitching depth. The hosts express skepticism about the Blue Jays' sustainability and advocate for fading them. The episode concludes with strong recommendations for the Boston-Houston under and the Phillies money line as a parlay leg, emphasizing the importance of context, pitcher health, and market inefficiencies. The hosts also promote their Double Play package, offering bundled access to their picks.
The Dodgers are a strong favorite against the Guardians, but laying the minus 1.5 is risky due to high juice; consider alternatives like Yamamoto to win or over 17.5 outs.
Avoid betting on the Blue Jays in the near term due to multiple starting pitcher injuries and bullpen strain; they are a fade for the next few weeks.
The Boston-Houston game features two strong pitchers (Crochet and Burroughs) and a low total of 7.0; the under is a solid play.
Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies has a 54% chance to win his start—making him a strong parlay leg despite the low odds.
Don’t overreact to one bad start from elite pitchers like Skeens or Burroughs; use the 'gymnastics judge' approach and throw out outliers.
…and 2 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Opening Segment & Shopify Ad
Charissa opens with a promotional message for Shopify, highlighting its ease of use and integration. She then transitions into the main show, welcoming Brian Leonard and Tokyo Brandon for the Total Bases episode.
Dodgers vs. Guardians: Key Betting Angles
“I've got about a two-run difference on my projection with those teams. So I'm comfortable with laying the minus 1.5, minus 120.”
Pirates vs. Reds: Skeens & Abbott Analysis
“Don’t live in the moment. Live in the big picture. The chances of him having two horrible games in a row are absolutely close to zero.”
White Sox vs. Marlins: Market Mispricing?
The hosts examine the White Sox-Marlins series, noting that the market has overvalued Miami. They express skepticism about laying the Marlins' price and suggest the White Sox are better value on the plus 1.5, though the current odds are unplayable.
Blue Jays vs. Rockies: Fade the Jays
“I'm going to be looking to play against the Jays. So what I'm hoping for personally... is a Marlins blowout and a Jays blowout so maybe we can get a nice price on the White Sox for tomorrow.”
“Don’t live in the moment. Live in the big picture. The chances of him having two horrible games in a row are absolutely close to zero.”
“I've got about a two-run difference on my projection with those teams. So I'm comfortable with laying the minus 1.5, minus 120.”
“I'm going to be looking to play against the Jays. So what I'm hoping for personally... is a Marlins blowout and a Jays blowout so maybe we can get a nice price on the White Sox for tomorrow.”
Hosts
Tokyo Brandon
person
Brian Leonard
person
Los Angeles Dodgers
other
Cleveland Guardians
other
Yoshinori Yamamoto
person
WagerTalk
organization
Gavin Williams
person
Charissa
person
Paul Skenes
person
Andrew Abbott
person
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