Emergency Podcast: The Iran War Impact on Vietnam | Michael Kokalari

The global economy faces a crisis as 20 million barrels of oil daily—17% of global demand—flow through the Strait of Hormuz, now disrupted by escalating tensions. Despite oil prices rising 70-80%, they haven’t surged like in the 1970s due to market expectations that Trump will back down from military escalation, creating a 'TACO paradox' where fear of collapse prevents collapse. If Trump doesn’t retreat within two to three weeks, the economic hit could surpass even the COVID-19 pandemic. Vietnam, though vulnerable, is better positioned than most: its government has secured temporary oil supplies from Russia and China, maintains a relatively stable fuel market, and has avoided panic-driven shortages. Yet inflation is expected to hit 5.5%, with fertilizer and diesel prices doubling—hurting working families most. The real story, however, is not the crisis, but the opportunity: Vietnam’s 'bamboo diplomacy' and strategic neutrality position it as a 'connector economy'—a ball-bearing nation between global powers. As the world rebuilds energy resilience, Vietnam’s push for renewables, LNG imports, and refining capacity could transform it into a critical hub. The crisis may be devastating globally, but for Vietnam, it’s a catalyst for long-term economic ascendancy.