Hormuz Latest, Trump Rallies Amid Sinking Approval, Tariff Refunds

This episode of Up First from NPR covers three major developments: escalating tensions in the Middle East, President Trump's campaign rally in Arizona amid record-low approval ratings, and the upcoming launch of a government refund portal for tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. Iran's reimposition of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz threatens the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while a 10-day truce in Lebanon remains uncertain due to Hezbollah's refusal to accept the terms. Trump, despite low national approval, energized a loyal conservative crowd at a Turning Point USA event in Arizona, using familiar rhetoric about American strength and criticizing Democrats. Meanwhile, Monday marks the debut of a high-demand online portal for businesses to claim $166 billion in illegally collected tariffs—though consumers are unlikely to see direct refunds, as only importers can apply. The refund process is expected to be chaotic, with businesses racing to file claims using AI tools and multiple login attempts. The episode underscores the political and economic volatility of the moment: a foreign policy standoff with Iran, a struggling presidential re-election campaign, and a massive administrative rollout with uneven benefits. While Trump rallies his base with bold messaging, the broader electorate remains skeptical. The tariff refund portal, though a historic moment for businesses, highlights systemic inequities in the supply chain, leaving many retailers and consumers in limbo. Overall, the episode paints a picture of a nation navigating multiple crises—diplomatic, electoral, and fiscal—where short-term fixes may not resolve deeper structural issues.