The Big Long: Risk and Reward With Ben Carlson

Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management, joins Trillions to discuss his new book, Risk and Reward, and the launch of the GTND ETF—both released within days of each other. At the heart of the conversation is a powerful counterintuitive idea: even if you invest at the absolute worst possible times—like before the 1973 crash, 1987 crash, dot-com bust, or Great Financial Crisis—you’ll still likely become a millionaire over a 40-year horizon. Carlson’s famous 'Bob' study, updated for the book, shows that a hypothetical investor who only bought at market peaks still achieved an 8% annual return. This underscores his core thesis: time in the market beats timing the market. He argues that behavioral discipline—staying invested, diversifying across asset classes and geographies, and using 'fun accounts' for speculative bets—matters far more than market predictions. The book and ETF both reflect a behavioral finance approach: the GTND ETF uses a rules-based trend-following strategy to protect against crashes while still capturing bull markets, offering a psychological safety net for investors who can’t sleep at night. Carlson also challenges the notion that the U.S. stock market is uniquely special, noting that international diversification still matters—even if the U.S. dominates today—especially as AI levels the playing field globally.