"They Didn't Think This Through" - Ex CIA Operator, Mike Baker

In this gripping episode of Trigonometry, host Charissa welcomes back ex-CIA operator Mike Baker to dissect the escalating crisis in the Middle East following U.S.-led strikes on Iran. Baker argues that the U.S. failed to fully anticipate Iran’s strategic response, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global chokepoint for oil, LNG, and fertilizer shipments. He warns that the economic fallout from this blockade could trigger a global recession, disproportionately affecting Europe and the UK, while the U.S. remains relatively insulated. Baker emphasizes that Iran’s use of asymmetric warfare—via drones, proxy networks, and potential lone-wolf terrorism—was foreseeable, yet underappreciated in Washington. He critiques the lack of coalition planning, the overreliance on unilateral action, and the political short-termism driving U.S. foreign policy. The episode also explores the divergence between U.S. and Israeli objectives, the fragility of European alliances, and the overlooked war in Ukraine, which Baker warns is slipping from public consciousness despite its ongoing and escalating threat. Ultimately, Baker stresses that the failure to think through the consequences of military action has created a dangerous new reality where diplomacy may now be the only viable path forward.