No deal

The U.S. failed to secure a nuclear deal with Iran during a high-stakes two-week negotiation led by Vice President J.D. Vance, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner playing key roles. Despite Vance's brief public statements and the administration's insistence that talks could resume, the absence of a breakthrough has heightened regional tensions, especially after the U.S. imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Ambassador Wendy Sherman, who led the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, reflects on the complexity of diplomacy, warning that the current U.S. approach—marked by military escalation and unproven negotiators—risks weakening American credibility and empowering Iran. She emphasizes that while the 2015 deal had limitations, it prevented war and maintained a critical one-year breakout timeline. Now, with Iran in a stronger position due to its control of the Strait and the U.S. having spent billions and strained alliances, Sherman cautions that a new deal could leave the U.S. weaker and set off a regional arms race. The episode underscores the delicate balance between leverage, trust, and the high cost of failure in international diplomacy. Key takeaways include: 1) Diplomacy requires credibility, and past military actions undermine current negotiations; 2) Iran’s leverage has increased due to its control of the Strait of Hormuz; 3) The U.S. must weigh short-term gains against long-term strategic risks; 4) A deal that appears favorable on paper may still leave the U.S. weaker if it enables Iran’s military and economic recovery; 5) The absence of experienced negotiators raises doubts about the team’s ability to deliver; 6) Public perception of the U.S. as a reliable partner is eroding; 7) Regional stability depends on preventing a nuclear arms race; 8) The cost of war—economic, military, and diplomatic—is far greater than the cost of negotiation.