"Bitcoin Will Bottom When This Happens" | Ben Cowen

In this episode of *The Wolf Of All Streets*, host Ben Cowen delivers a data-driven analysis of Bitcoin's current bear market, arguing that the likelihood of the cycle's bottom being in is only around 25%. Despite Bitcoin holding steady near $60K–$75K since early February, Cowen emphasizes that bear markets often spend more time trending upward than downward, making them psychologically and structurally deceptive. He draws parallels to past cycles—2018, 2020, and 2022—highlighting how major bottoms historically occurred when Bitcoin fell below key metrics like the realized price and when the percentage of supply in profit or loss converged. Cowen warns that a drop to $30K–$50K would be a more convincing bottom, though he sees this as likely rather than certain. He also explores the broader macro context, noting that late-cycle oil spikes have historically preceded downturns, which has led him to invest in energy stocks like Exxon and manufacturing firms such as Dow, which have surged after sweeping pandemic lows. Cowen cautions against overvaluing altcoins, calling them a 'casino' compared to Bitcoin’s long-term store-of-value potential, and stresses that true market recovery will require a crisis-driven reset of the business cycle, not just narrative shifts. He remains cautiously bullish on Bitcoin long-term but expects the next bull market to emerge in 2027–2029.